Susceptibility models for climate change relevant biotic disturbance agents and fire

A model will be developed for spatial and temporal simulation of the phenology of the important spruce bark beetle Ips schmutzenhoferi in selected areas in Bhutan. The model will be based on the PHENIPS-model for the European spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus (Baier et. al, 2007). Combined with a Predisposition Assessment System (PAS) (Netherer and Nopp-Mayr, 2005) which has to be adapted to local circumstances, it allows to evaluate the risk of bark beetle outbreaks and to identify vulnerable areas of forest stands and sites both in space and time under current and future climate change conditions.