Simulating climate change adaptation of land users in three European long-term socio-ecological research platforms: an agent-based modeling approach for 2070
Abstract
Adaptation to climate change is one of the major challenges in strengthening the resilience of social-ecological systems. As frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are projected to rise, negative impacts on ecosystems, human well-being and economic prosperity are occurring at ever higher rates. The vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate change is particularly high and the necessity to act accordingly has long been recognized by major international bodies. While many countries now have national-level adaptation policies in place, as of yet, there exists only limited evidence of actual climate risk reduction. Effectiveness of adaptation hinges on local contextualization of measures and integration into local long-term political agendas, as one-size-fits-all policies increasingly prove inadequate. An important point here is to understand the behavior of individual land users in their specific socio-ecological context, as this is key to increasing the effectiveness of adaptation strategies. As a consequence, exploring land users’ regionally embedded decision-making processes and their interdependencies across spatial and temporal scales is central for the development of sustainable land-use policies and the coherent governance of climate change adaptation. This includes systematic identification and evaluation of drivers of land-use change stemming from intrinsic psychological characteristics and cognitive processes (such as attitude or culture), as well as from environmental, socioeconomic and political framework conditions (such as farm structure, climate, or subsidy regime). Hence, the overarching scientific objectives of this proposal are (a) to advance understanding and assessment of land users’ decision-making and climate change adaptation behavior in distinct regional contexts, (b) to develop a novel agent-based modeling approach for cross-site investigation of medium- to long-term effects of biophysical and social framework conditions underpinning these decision-making processes, and (c) to compute projections of land-use change and examine the spatial patterns and temporal dynamics resulting from specific counter-factual scenarios. In order to achieve these objectives, I will combine qualitative and quantitative methods and data to develop a spatially explicit agent-based model. The model will be able to simulate land-use change originating from the behavior of individual land-use actors under varying framework conditions. The model will be applied in three European long-term socio-ecological research platforms (LTSER) in Austria, Spain and Romania and allows for a comparative cross-site analysis to identify regional differences and cross-regional commonalities.
keywords agent based modeling agriculture climate change adaptation
Publikationen
Project staff
Bastian Bertsch-Hörmann
Mag. Bastian Bertsch-Hörmann
bastian.bertsch-hoermann@boku.ac.at
Project Leader
29.09.2023 - 30.11.2025
Project Staff
01.12.2022 - 28.09.2023
Veronika Gaube
Mag.rer.nat. Dr.phil. Veronika Gaube
veronika.gaube@boku.ac.at
Tel: +43 1 47654-73721
Project Leader
01.12.2022 - 28.09.2023