Scenarios for a socially just energy and heating transition in the residential building sector in Austria

In order to achieve the goal of climate neutrality by 2040, it is essential to decarbonize the Austrian building sector, which accounts for around 10% of national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Almost 1.4 million fossil-fuel heating systems are still in use. Around 60% of residential buildings are also considered to need energy-efficient refurbishment. At the same time, more and more people are struggling to keep their homes adequately warm (or cool in summer), with up to 10% of all households doing so according to recent surveys. Low-income and vulnerable groups live disproportionately often in poorly insulated homes and are therefore exposed to health hazards from living spaces that are too cold or too hot. At the intersection of these two challenges, the project is guided by two research questions: 1) How should different approaches and measures for decarbonizing the building sector be evaluated in terms of their socio-economic compatibility? 2) Which approaches and measures are capable of fostering a "just transition" - i.e. a decarbonization of the building sector in line with the SDGs? Guided by these research questions, the overarching aim of this project is to identify pathways for a "just transition" in the building sector, with a particular focus on the rental housing sector. This project follows an interdisciplinary approach, theoretically guided by the current scientific literature on "energy justice" and "just transition". The project uses qualitative and quantitative system dynamics methods. It will develop a building module for the established system dynamic iSDG_AT model and calibrate it with historical data for Austria. In addition, integrated socio-economic scenarios for achieving climate neutrality in the building sector will be developed and evaluated using the iSDG_AT model. In this way, the project will help to identify possible synergies and trade-offs between various policy measures and scenarios and the SDGs, as well as new approaches to evaluation.