Modelling land use in Austria without the CAP strategic plan

The strategic plan of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reformed in 2022 has been implemented in Austria since January 2023. The aim is to achieve three general and ten specific objectives. The extent to which the objectives set will be achieved will be assessed in the course of an accompanying (expected from mid-2025) and final evaluation (from 2030). Several studies will be carried out for this purpose. According to the evaluation plan, a land use study is to be prepared by the end of 2025. This will compare the observed situation with a situation without GSP and quantify the effects. To this end, a model of Austrian agriculture will be used to quantify the land use changes resulting from the implementation of the GSP. A key objective of this study is to describe a counterfactual situation in which no GSP interventions are implemented. Specifically, the following evaluation question is to be answered: “What would the counterfactual situation look like without GSP in terms of land use, greenhouse gas emissions and possibly other indicators, e.g. security of supply?” The results are particularly relevant with regard to the distribution of crop types and crops as well as the intensity of cultivation, but also as a basis for answering further questions.The following offer presents the motives and motivations for this study and explains how it fits into the plan for evaluating the Austrian GSP.Furthermore, detailed evaluation questions are proposed and suitable methodological approaches and requirements are described.The work is divided into several work packages.These include the definition of the reference situation in coordination with the client, the implementation of an accompanying stakeholder process and the quantitative description of the situation without the GSP.In addition, an economic evaluation is proposed as a comparison of the reference situation with alternative scenarios.