Beyond energy: Integrated cross-sectoral scenarios for reaching climate neutrality in Austria

Austria’s National energy and climate plan (NECP) states the target of climate neutrality by 2040. While emissions from fossil fuels have declined over the last two decades, net emissions have stagnated since 1990 due to a reduction in carbon sinks from the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector. Achieving climate neutrality therefore will require a comprehensive understanding of interactions among all sectors – not only among those emitting fossil fuels. However, integrated climate neutrality scenarios that account for all sectors are currently lacking in Austria, which significantly limits the understanding of available options. To address this research gap, CROSS-SEC aims to provide the first set of scenarios for achieving full climate neutrality across all sectors by 2040. Our approach develops integrated scenarios that capture the interlinkages between all greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting sectors and harmonizes relevant assumptions, accounting for sector linkages such as biomass use for energy and expansion of renewable energy facilities on agricultural land. Building on previous research within the Austrian Climate Research Program (ACRP) and other initiatives, we combine sectoral models to address the complex interactions, trade-offs, and synergies crucial to achieving climate neutrality. A key tool in our approach is the state-of-the-art energy system model, PyPSA-EUR, which enables detailed modelling of the Austrian Energy system with high temporal resolution, incorporating energy carrier trade with European neighbours. PyPSA-EUR also includes industrial emissions, providing full insights into the investment and operational costs required for decarbonization in the energy system. This model is coupled with FAMOS, a spatially resolved model of Austrian agriculture, and the forestry model 3WME that evaluates biomass growth and carbon stocks in Austrian forests. The FAMOS model is adapted to reflect detailed investment costs for various mitigation options. The models PyPSA-EUR and FAMOS consider the adaptation costs driven by climate change impacts until 2040. Our research advances previous work in two key aspects: first, by providing a detailed assessment of the investments needed across all sectors to achieve climate neutrality, optimizing mitigation costs comprehensively. Second, through our integrated analysis, we quantify the scale of negative emissions required to offset residual emissions from hard-to-abate sectors, such as agriculture and industry, identifying which sectors can most cost-effectively generate these negative emissions.