Analytical Foundations for Wolf Management in Austria – Population Risk Analyses

The grey wolf (Canis lupus) has been increasingly recolonizing Austria, creating new requirements for monitoring, management, transboundary coordination and EU-compliant reporting. The PVAWolf project develops and tests an assessment methodology for evaluating the wolf's favourable conservation status (FCS) in Austria, following the approach proposed by Linnell & Boitani (2025) and in consultation with relevant national and international stakeholders. Building on the DaFNE LeKoWolf models and potentially incorporating connectivity information from WildCon, the project identifies and structures the monitoring data required for long-term population assessment and model-based projections. PVAWolf will not itself define a legally binding FCS, but will provide transparent, scenario-based evidence for MVP, FCS-relevant quantities, ecological carrying capacity and FCS-related management options. The core component is the derivation of ecological carrying capacity and the application of scenario-based population viability analyses to estimate a first minimum viable population for Austria, integrating demographic, genetic parameters, as well as data uncertainty. The project includes a risk plan and a detailed 16-month work plan with milestones and intermediate outputs. The project delivers evidence-based outputs to support national and transboundary wolf management, Habitats Directive reporting, and the development of a conflict-sensitive and adaptive management framework for Austria.