New Avalanche Forecast Technology
Abstract
The limits of numerical avalanche forecasting models were shown in the former project NAFT. Although this model indicated the danger trend and the general avalanche hazard situation in a satisfying way , there still exists one disadvantage: the user wants to receive a more detailed information referring single avalanche paths or hazard sites. Therefore the aims for NAFT2000 are defined by the improvement of the regional prognosis and the development of a model for the local prognosis .The optimisation of the regional prognosis was quite successful. By including the exposition into the statistical analysis and genetic algorithms the hit rate raised on the average of 5%. So the delivered results became more certain over warning was reduced, because both the hit ratio of avalanche days and non avalanche days increased. The local prognosis shows two improvements: first the hit rate is satisfying and the hazard stage can be visualised for single danger sites on a slope. Furthermore the user is supported with additional information about snow height and radiation. The biggest advantage of the local forecast concept is the independence of long term time series observations, only a few data implementation and adaptation have to be done.
keywords Avalanche early warning system Local forecast Radiation simulation
Publikationen
Project staff
Karl Kleemayr
Ass.Prof. Dipl.-Ing. Dr.nat.techn. Karl Kleemayr
Project Leader
01.05.2000 - 31.03.2001
BOKU partners
External partners
DSD Linz
none
partner