Analysing agricultural policy options under transition and in view of future accession to EU for Slovenia and Bulgaria.

The project was intended to improve the empirical foundations of agricultural policy analysis in Slovenia and Bulgaria. Various types of agricultural sector models were developed or adapted to the particular needs of these economies in transition. All models were partial equilibrium models, mainly differing in commodity coverage and functional forms. For the case of Bulgaria in one of the models a distinction was made for a commercial sector on the one hand and a subsistence sector on the other. In that essentially a common set of data was used, differences of modelling results could be traced back to model characteristics. On this basis policy conclusions for pre-accession strategies and accession negotiations could be presented. For Bulgaria the main thrust of conclusions lay in the need to further develop the institutional framework for market economies in order to become competitive. The Slovenian agriculture would had to suffer more from opening markets to the Visegrad countries, and namely to Hungary, than from joining the EU. Neither of the two agricultural sectors is really competitive compared to EU-standards. Joining the EU will therefore require further adjustments.