Integrated risk assessment and new pest management technology in ecosystems affected by forest decline and bark beetle outbreaks

Serious risk assessment and pest management needs practicable tools basing on profound knowledge about triggers of insect outbreaks. At our institute two rating systems which facilitate the evaluation of a given region with respect to its potentials for bark beetle development were established. The concept of predisposition of forests to disturbing agents assumes that the probability of damage is influenced by the occurrence of certain site and stand characteristics. We can show that the pattern of Ips typographus infestations in the research area corresponds well to the spatial distribution of selected hazard indicating factors. The localisation of naturally given ¿danger spots¿ can be specified by reconstructing past and monitoring current climatic conditions on site level. The consideration of both topo-climatology and bark beetle eco-physiology allows the modelling of spring swarming, status of brood development at any time as well as the possible number of terminated generations per period.