Model development for regional/large scale spatial risk assessment of bark beetle epidemics
Abstract
Actual assessment and spatial analysis of risks of bark beetle epidemics is an important tool for decision-making processes in forest management concerning land use planning, ranking of priorities, and implementation of preventive silvicultural as well as curative pest management measures. The proposed model for risk assessment at regional scale opens up options for monitoring of the bark beetle development at large spatial scale, and for timely notice of initial manifestations of critical epidemic situations (“hot spots”). Besides monitoring, an assessment of future scenarios based on climatic projections can be done, which is relevant for long-term planning of prospective silvicultural measures. The aim of the proposed project is the development of a model for regional/large scale risk assessment of bark beetle outbreaks, i.e. outbreaks of the European Spruce Bark Beetle, Ips typographus. Based on meteorological and topographic data, a climatic model for the complex, alpine terrain will be established with high-resolution. The integration of the thermal requirements of bark beetle development will then be used for mapping and online forecasting of bark beetle development. The tasks of the proposed project comprise: programming of the online integration of meteorological data of recording stations, adaptation of the climatic model DAYMET, topo-climatic modelling using the data of a digital elevation model, climatic data of recording stations, and data from image analysis of METEOSAT-satellite images. The validation of the model output will be done using existing datasets concerning onset of spring swarming, bark beetle development, bark beetle infestation, and damage at local scale (Kalkalpen national park 2001-2003) and of existing bark beetle monitoring programs at regional scale.
keywords Bark Beetle Bioclimatology Forest Protection Ips typographus Risk assessment
Publikationen
Entwicklung eines Modells zur regionalen/überregionalen Risikoabschätzung von Borkenkäfer-Kalamitäten
Autoren: Schopf, A., Baier, P., Pennerstorfer, J., Hasenauer, H., Petritsch, R. Jahr: 2007
Forschungsbericht (extern. Auftraggeber)
Biodiversität in Waldökosystemen Eine Voraussetzung zur Vermeidung von Borkenkäfer-Massenvermehrungen
Autoren: Pennerstorfer, J.; Netherer, S.; Baier, P.; Schopf, A. Jahr: 2009
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Project staff
Axel Schopf
Univ.-Prof. i.R. Dr.phil. Axel Schopf
axel.schopf@boku.ac.at
Project Leader
01.12.2005 - 30.09.2007
Hubert Hasenauer
Univ.Prof. Dipl.-Ing. Dr.nat.techn. DDr.h.c. Hubert Hasenauer
hubert.hasenauer@boku.ac.at
Tel: +43 1 47654-91301, 91311
Project Staff
01.12.2005 - 30.09.2007
Josef Pennerstorfer
Dr. Josef Pennerstorfer MSc.
josef.pennerstorfer@boku.ac.at
Tel: +43 1 47654-91635
Project Staff
01.12.2005 - 30.09.2007
BOKU partners
External partners
Federal Forest Office (BFW)
none
partner
Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik
none
coordinator