Foresight Security Scenarios: Mapping Research to a Comprehensive Approach to Exogenous EU Roles
Abstract
FOCUS will allow designing European security research to effectively cope with future EU roles responding to tomorrow’s challenges resulting from the globalization of risks, threats and vulnerabilities. FOCUS will concentrate on alternative future EU roles to prevent or respond to incidents that are logically located on the “borderline” between the internal and the external dimension of the security of the Union and its citizens. It will do so through the elaboration of multiple scenarios based on IT-supported foresight in the form of alternative futures that are plausibility-probed and not just threat scenarios.The main contribution of the FOCUS project is the development of effective long-term prediction and assessment tool at an EU level that is populated with analyses done in the project. Moreover, it will deliver tangible products (as an IT platform) and contents (as a roadmap) for planning of research and deciding on priorities. These products are usable beyond the project. FOCUS will design and apply an “embedded scenario” integrating method, delineating options for future tracks and broadened concepts of security research within context scenarios for EU roles to respond to transversal challenges (whose causes are exogenous, but whose consequences will be experienced within the EU). This will be performed along five big themes: 1) different tracks of a comprehensive approach as followed by European institutions, Member States and international strategic actors, particularly including linkages between the internal and external dimension of security; 2) natural disasters and environment-related hazards, focused on comprehensive risk reduction, civil protection and reconstruction; 3) critical infrastructure and supply chain protection, centred on preventing and responding to malicious attacks on EU citizens and utilities abroad as well as to meet threats before they reach the EU or affect the supply chain; 4) the EU as a global actor based on the wider Petersberg Tasks, building on EU and member states instruments and capability processes; 5) the evolution of the EU’s internal framework and prerequisites for delivering a comprehensive approach, including Lisbon treaty provisions and relevant strategies (e.g. for engagement with other international actors) as well as ethical acceptability and public acceptance. The “embedded scenario” method and IT-based tools will be adjusted and sharpened while applied to these five thematic scenarios. Interrelations among themes and scenarios will be particularly addressed: FOCUS will investigate cross-cutting issues that constitute transversal key drivers/constraints. The project will explore interfaces and translation mechanisms by which exogenous threats, such as they e.g. result from global change, directly confront EU citizens, their perception and their actual state of security. It also means to consider differential impact of exogenous threats on Member States and national as well as European programmes in place to enhance capabilities to meet them through research. FOCUS will deliver (a) an IT Platform with tools and infrastructure for designing, applying, evaluating and managing scenarios for research planning, (b) populated with scenarios and analyses; (c) a roadmap with new tracks for security researchIn particular, FOCUS will identify and assess alternative sets of future tracks for security research in FP7 and subsequent programmes, supporting EU roles to deal with exogenous threats, risks and vulnerabilities. It implies the creation of roles to prevent or respond to incidents that are logically located on the “borderline” between the internal and the external dimension of the security of the Union and its citizens.
Publikationen
Project staff
Markus Drapalik
Mag. Dr. Markus Drapalik
markus.drapalik@boku.ac.at
Tel: +43 1 47654-81811
Project Leader
01.04.2011 - 30.06.2013
Emmerich Seidelberger
Dipl.-Ing. Emmerich Seidelberger
emmerich.seidelberger@boku.ac.at
Project Staff
01.04.2011 - 30.06.2013