University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU) - Research portal
Gewählte Master / Diploma Thesis:
Robert Sinn
(2015):
Rentabilitätsvergleich der Saatgutvermehrung gegenüber der Konsumproduktion unter Berücksichtigung des Produktionsrisikos mit Monte Carlo Simulation.
Master / Diploma Thesis - Institut für Agrar- und Forstökonomie,
BOKU-Universität für Bodenkultur,
pp 109.
UB BOKU
obvsg
FullText
- Abstract:
- The aim of this study is to determine the profitability of seed multiplication over the production of consumer goods (means food, feed and fuel production without seed multiplication) for different crops. Measuring the profitability by gross margin production risk is taken into account using Monte Carlo Simulation. It should be examined whether the additional resource requirements of seed multiplication is covered and what probability the gross margins of seed multiplication are in comparison to those of production of consumer goods. The investigation is carried out, depending on data availability, for the crops quality wheat, milling wheat, feed wheat, winter barley, soybean and winter rape (line varieties) in humid and dry areas of Austria. The database consists of records of Saatbau Linz regarding the seed multiplication of the crop years 2008 to 2013. The calculation basis of the model forms a gross margin calculation in Microsoft Excel 2010. The stochastic simulation is performed with the software @-risk of Palisade Corporation. For each crop, the distribution functions of seed multiplication and production of consumer goods are compared by @-risk. In all cultures and both study areas, the simulation results show relative excellence of seed multiplication in gross margin. The severity of excellence is interpreted with the help of the concept of stochastic dominance. The multiplication of the cultures of milling wheat, winter barley and winter rape in the humid region are first-order stochastic dominant towards the consumer cultivation and the other cultures in multiplication studied have equally high averages in the gross margin. Considering the worst case, there is the possibility to achieve lower results with seed multiplication compared to production of consumer goods. However the probability for this scenario, calculated using @-risk, is considered extremely low.
- Beurteilende(r): Breuer Guenter
- 1.Mitwirkender: Eder Michael