University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU) - Research portal
Gewählte Master / Diploma Thesis:
Marcel Schlicker
(2017):
BERECHNUNG DER MÖGLICHEN ERTRAGSENTWICKLUNG IN ZEA MAYS UND TRITICUM AESTIVUM BEI SICH ÄNDERNDEN KLIMABEDINGUNGEN IM PANNONIKUM BIS 2050 - MITHILFE VON SIMULATIONSMODELLEN.
Master / Diploma Thesis - Institut für Meteorologie (BOKU-Met),
BOKU-Universität für Bodenkultur,
pp 89.
UB BOKU
obvsg
FullText
- Abstract:
- Agriculture has always been a climate-sensitive industry, which must adapt to the climatic conditions and weather, including extreme events. As we are in the midst of a climate change we will have to adapt agricultural production in the future decades. However, this should not mean that climate change will result in detrimental changes and the yield will uniformly drop. Climate change can also lead to completely other developments. In this thesis, the geographical area of Pannonikum is to be considered and the effects of climate change on the production of corn and winter wheat are recorded. In addition, possible adaptation measures against falling yields are to be examined and assessed. The adaptation measures included a hedge as a wind-breaking object and a mulch layer for protection against evaporation. The investigations were carried out using simulation models, whereby the model named "Aqua-Crop" was chosen. The simulations were carried out for the Nordburgenland with two RCP-4.5 scenarios, which extend into the year 2050. The model was calibrated with yields collected at the arable farm of my parents during the period 2001-2012. Based on this calibration, the simulation results of the period 2001-2012 were compared with those of the projected years 2021-2050. In addition, the simulations were calculated with different CO2 concentrations of the atmosphere. This allows an independent assessment of the CO2 fertilization effect and the possible yield span of the crops can be represented in accordance with CO2 content in the atmosphere. The simulations for the Pannonikum as an investigation area and under the given RCP 4.5 scenarios showed that changes in climatic conditions also lead to changes in the yields of the crops. Without targeted adjustment strategies the yield level cannot be maintained. In addition, the effect of fertilizing with CO2 was assessed and the yield-enhancing effect of the adaptation strategies could be confirmed.
- Beurteilende(r): Eitzinger Josef