University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU) - Research portal
Gewählte Master / Diploma Thesis:
Celia Sancho De Pablo
(2021):
GLOF hazard associated with glacier retreat in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru: a case study on Laguna 513.
Master / Diploma Thesis - Institut für Meteorologie und Klimatologie,
BOKU-Universität für Bodenkultur,
pp 110.
UB BOKU
obvsg
FullText
- Abstract:
- High-mountain environments with snow and ice are particularly sensitive to climatic changes, especially in the tropics. Glacier hazards threaten societies in mountain regions worldwide. Of special concern are cascading mass movement processes impacting glacier lakes and triggering glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs). The Cordillera Blanca in the Peruvian Andes is the most glaciated mountain range in the tropics. The risk of GLOFs from lakes that have formed at the base of retreating glaciers is very high in these areas. In this mountain range, the glacier lake Laguna 513 was formed in the late 1960s due to the glacier Cochca retreat and was declared highly dangerous in 1988. This study includes an analysis of the glacier Cochca evolution from 1962 to 2015, a research of the climate on the study area including the past data trends, spatial variability, correlation of the temperature with ENSO phenomenon and projections of future climate trends under different scenarios. The work also incorporates simulations of a scenario of a GLOF from the glacier Cochca into the lake Laguna 513 that affects the city of Carhuaz, through the tools r.avaflow® and ArcGIS®. The study concludes that the glacier Cochca retreated during the studied period and according to future temperature trends, it is expected to continue retreating; the climate in the area is determined by a strong seasonal variation in precipitation with the rainy season in southern hemisphere summer and reduced seasonal temperature variability; a warming is expected in the area according to regional climate scenarios and precipitation is predicted to increase too, especially during the rainy season. And as a final conclusion according to the r.avaflow® simulation performed, if a GLOF event of the studied dimensions happens, the event would take a short time to reach the city of Carhuaz and would pose a high risk for the population downstream.
- Beurteilende*r: Formayer Herbert