SHEMOS - Shell mobility scenarios 2035

The project was funded by Shell Austria and carried out by Institute for Transport Studies, University Bodenkultur, Vienna, Austria. Applying scenario techniques the objective of the study was to investigate possible routes towards a sustainable transport system in the area of Vienna by 2035. The work is based on a business-as-usual scenario including all known and the most probable measures impacting mobility and on the other hand a scenario including measures such as road pricing on top to achieve a more sustainable development. (1) Development under "business-as-usual” conditions ·Due to decentralised settlement, extension of arterial road infrastructure and increasing motorisation (+35% until year 2035), total passenger car kilometres per day will increase by 90%, resulting in much more traffic jams than today, hence length of congested inner-city roads will increase three times. ·Technical progress can partly compensate negative impacts of this development (e. g. particulate emissions -77%, NOx emissions -60%), but CO2-emissions increase until 2035 by 67%. The goal of the Kyoto treaty will clearly be failed (-13% CO2-emissions for Austria; basis 1990). ·A "Sustainability Index” was defined, which summarises economical, ecological and social aspects of transport using 13 characteristic indicators (0% means not sustainable at all, while 100% means sustainability achieved). In the business-as-usual scenario the index decreases from 55% today to 49% in 2035. (2) Development including measures aiming at sustainable mobility ·Key measure is the implementation of a road pricing system for the private car traffic: 0,08 €/km (peak-time) and 0,04 €/km (off peak-time) in Vienna and 0,04 €/km (peak-time) and 0,02 €/km (off peak-time) in the extra-urban areas. Furthermore the extension of arterial road infrastructure is reduced while public transport, cycling and walking is supported and promoted. ·Total passenger car kilometres per day in this case increase by no more than 35% instead of 90% in case of the business-as-usual scenario. This serves a stabilisation of road congestion at a level similar to today’s situation. ·Local emissions are reduced significantly, e.g. compared to today’s particulate emissions -87%, NOx emissions -74%. ·CO2 emissions remain at a level similar to the current situation but nevertheless the commitments of the Kyoto treaty will be failed. The scenario demonstrates a reversal of the current trend resulting in a significant improvement of the sustainability index from 55% today to 64% in 2035. This turnaround is not taken for granted but requires the implementation of rather unpopular measures. On the other hand, we have to be aware that not to take any decisions towards sustainable mobility is a clear decision against it.