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Forest disturbance in a changing world

Project Leader

Seidl Rupert, Project Leader

Duration:

01.03.2016-28.02.2022

Programme:

START-Programm

Type of Research

Basic Research

Project partners

Bavarian Forest National Park, Germany.
Function of the Project Partner: Partner

Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, 165 21 Prague 6 – Suchdol, Czech Republic.
Function of the Project Partner: Partner

European Forest Institute, European Union.
Function of the Project Partner: Partner

Forest Research Institute Zvolen, Slovakia.
Function of the Project Partner: Partner

Staff

Rammer Werner, Co-worker

Sommerfeld Andreas, Co-worker

Krismer Hanna, Co-worker (bis 31.12.2016)

Albrich Katharina, Co-worker

BOKU Research Units

Institute of Silviculture

Funded by

Fonds zur Förderung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung (FWF) , Sensengasse 1, 1090 Wien, Austria

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change has profound impacts on ecological processes and is rapidly changing the composition, structure, and functioning of ecosystems. For long-lived ecosystems such as forests the unprecedented pace of these changes will strongly limit the ability for adaptation through genetic and evolutionary processes. As systems are increasingly ill-adapted to their environment, abrupt and disruptive changes are getting increasingly likely. Over the past decades, disturbance events such as windthrow, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires have already increased markedly in forests around the globe. Yet, our understanding of the long-term changes in forest disturbance regimes and their impacts is still limited, hampering our ability to address these changes in ecosystem management. Using an innovative multi-method approach the project will (i) improve our systems understanding of the drivers of forest disturbance regimes, (ii) lead to a comprehensive appraisal of the impacts of current and future disturbance regimes on biological diversity and ecosystem services, and, based on these insights, (iii) develop strategies on how ecosystem management and society at large can cope with changing forest disturbance regimes. To address these questions we will study landscapes in Central Europe, contrasting unmanaged forests (e.g., national parks) with managed forest landscapes in similar biogeographical settings. For this network of study landscapes we will use tree ring analysis to reconstruct the disturbance regimes of past centuries, apply remote sensing to estimate current disturbance severity and extent, and harness simulation modeling to project future trajectories under an ensemble of climate change scenarios. Based on this multi-century analysis we will for the first time in Europe be able to determine whether and how current and future disturbance regimes transgress the historical range of variability, and whether no-analog disturbance regimes are likely to emerge in the future. We will furthermore assess how changing disturbance regimes will affect biodiversity, and quantify their impacts on provisioning (e.g., timber production), regulating (e.g., carbon storage, water retention), cultural (e.g., the recreational value of a landscape), and supporting (e.g., primary productivity) services of forest ecosystems. Using simulation modeling embedded in a stakeholder process we will develop strategies of how to deal with such disturbance impacts, and how to optimally manage landscapes under different management objectives (conservation of biological diversity, provisioning of different ecosystem services). Novel simulation approaches will furthermore be used to scale results up to the regional scale, and provide policy makers and disaster risk managers with detailed information on future forest-related risks. The project will thus not only strongly advance the frontiers in disturbance ecology both with regard to process understanding and science-based ecosystem management, but will also deliver novel solutions for mitigating risks and fostering resilience to abrupt and disruptive changes in the environment in general.

Keywords

Computer simulation; Climate change; Ecosystem research; Silviculture; Forest ecology;

climate change impacts; ecological modeling; risk and resilience; disturbance ecology; forest ecosystem management;

Publications

Seidl, R. (2016): Changing climate and disturbance regimes in Europe's forests: impacts and resilience.
[Forest Management for Enhancing Resilience to Climate Change, Seoul, June 20-21, 2016]

In: Korean National Institute of Forest Science, 2016 International Climate Change Adaptation Symposium. Forest Management for Enhancing Resilience to Climate Change

Rammer, W; Seidl, R (2016): A simulation platform to assess forest landscape resilience.
[8th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, Toulouse, JUL, 10-14, 2016]

In: Sauvage, S., Sánchez-Pérez, J.M., Rizzoli, A.E. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 8th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, July 10-14, Toulouse,FRANCE; ISBN: 978-88-9035-745-9

Seidl, R (2016): Österreichs Wald im Klimawandel: Klimaopfer oder Klimaretter?.

Science VHS Wien, 06. Oct. 2016, Wien

Seidl, R. (2016): Changing disturbance regimes: Challenges and opportunities for forest management.

The challenge of global change: disturbance and risk in forest ecosystem management, Oct. 27-29, 2016, Narva, Estonia

Seidl, R. (2016): The paradox of forest disturbance.

ART & SCIENCE, University of Applied Arts Vienna, NOV 22, 2016, Wien

** Seidl, R; Donato, DC; Raffa, KF; Turner, MG; Spatial variability in tree regeneration after wildfire delays and dampens future bark beetle outbreaks..

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016; 113(46):13075-13080 WoS PubMed FullText FullText_BOKU

** Seidl, R To Model or not to Model, That is no Longer the Question for Ecologists.

ECOSYSTEMS. 2017; 20(2): 222-228. WoS FullText FullText_BOKU

** Reyer, CPO; Bathgate, S; Blennow, K; Borges, JG; Bugmann, H; Delzon, S; Faias, SP; Garcia-Gonzalo, J; Gardiner, B; Gonzalez-Olabarria, JR; Gracia, C; Hernandez, JG; Kellomaki, S; Kramer, K; Lexer, MJ; Lindner, M; van der Maaten, E; Maroschek, M; Muys, B; Nicoll, B; Palahi, M; Palma, JHN; Paulo, JA; Peltola, H; Pukkala, T; Rammer, W; Ray, D; Sabate, S; Schelhaas, MJ; Seidl, R; Temperli, C; Tome, M; Yousefpour, R; Zimmermann, NE; Hanewinkel, M Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?.

ENVIRON RES LETT. 2017; 12(3): WoS FullText FullText_BOKU

** Neumann, M; Mues, V; Moreno, A; Hasenauer, H; Seidl, R; (2017): Climate variability drives recent tree mortality in Europe..

Glob Chang Biol. 2017; PubMed FullText FullText_BOKU

Seidl, R., Klonner, G., Rammer, W., Essl, F., Moreno, A., Neumann, M., Dullinger, S. (2017): The potential impact of invasive pests on carbon storage in Europe’s forests .
[Macroecology in space and time. 10th annual meeting of the specialist group on macroecology of the Ecological Society of Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, Vienna, April 19-21, 2017]

In: Dullinger, S., Essl, F., Hülber, K., Lenzner, B., Macroecology in space and time, Department of Botany and Biodiversity, Division of Conservation Biology, Vegetation and Landscape Ecology, University of Vienna

Senf, C., Seidl, R. (2017): Similarities and differences in forest disturbance dynamics across the European temperate forest biome.
[Macroecology in space and time. 10th annual meeting of the specialist group on macroecology of the Ecological Society of Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, Vienna, April 19-21, 2017]

In: Dullinger, S., Essl, F., Hülber, K., Lenzner, B., Macroecology in space and time, Department of Botany and Biodiversity, Division of Conservation Biology, Vegetation and Landscape Ecology, University of Vienna

Senf, C., Seidl, R. (2017): Similarities and differences in forest disturbance patterns across the European temperate forest biome. [Poster]
[2nd International Conference on Forests, Bavarian Forest National Park, Neuschönau, Germany, April 26-29, 2017]

In: Bavarian Forest National Park, 2nd International Conference on Forests

** Seidl, R; Vigl, F; Rossler, G; Neumann, M; Rammer, W Assessing the resilience of Norway spruce forests through a model-based reanalysis of thinning trials.

FOREST ECOL MANAG. 2017; 388: 3-12. WoS FullText FullText_BOKU

** Bebi, P; Seidl, R; Motta, R; Fuhr, M; Firm, D; Krumm, F; Conedera, M; Ginzler, C; Wohlgemuth, T; Kulakowski, D Changes of forest cover and disturbance regimes in the mountain forests of the Alps.

FOREST ECOL MANAG. 2017; 388: 43-56. WoS FullText FullText_BOKU

** Janda, P; Trotsiuk, V; Mikolas, M; Bace, R; Nagel, TA; Seidl, R; Seedre, M; Morrissey, RC; Kucbel, S; Jaloviar, P; Jasik, M; Vysoky, J; Samonil, P; Cada, V; Mrhalova, H; Labusova, J; Novakova, MH; Rydval, M; Mateju, L; Syoboda, M The historical disturbance regime of mountain Norway spruce forests in the Western Carpathians and its influence on current forest structure and composition.

FOREST ECOL MANAG. 2017; 388: 67-78. WoS FullText FullText_BOKU

** Kulakowski, D; Seidl, R; Holeksa, J; Kuuluvainen, T; Nagel, TA; Panayotov, M; Svoboda, M; Thorn, S; Vacchiano, G; Whitlock, C; Wohlgemuth, T; Bebi, P A walk on the wild side: Disturbance dynamics and the conservation and management of European mountain forest ecosystems.

FOREST ECOL MANAG. 2017; 388: 120-131. WoS FullText FullText_BOKU

Seidl, R. (2017): Diversität und Resilienz im Waldmanagement.

Österreichische Forsttagung 2017, June 01-02, 2017, Wien

** Senf, C; Seidl, R; Hostert, P Remote sensing of forest insect disturbances: Current state and future directions.

INT J APPL EARTH OBS. 2017; 60: 49-60. WoS FullText FullText_BOKU

** Seidl, R; Thom, D; Kautz, M; Martin-Benito, D; Peltoniemi, M; Vacchiano, G; Wild, J; Ascoli, D; Petr, M; Honkaniemi, J; Lexer, MJ; Trotsiuk, V; Mairota, P; Svoboda, M; Fabrika, M; Nagel, TA; Reyer, CPO Forest disturbances under climate change.

NAT CLIM CHANGE. 2017; 7(6): 395-402. WoS FullText FullText_BOKU

Seidl, R. (2017): Resilienz im Waldmanagement.

Österreichische Forstzeitung, 07/2017, 10-11; ISSN 1012-4667

** Senf, C; Pflugmacher, D; Hostert, P; Seidl, R Using Landsat time series for characterizing forest disturbance dynamics in the coupled human and natural systems of Central Europe.

ISPRS J PHOTOGRAMM. 2017; 130: 453-463. WoS FullText FullText_BOKU

Braziunas, K.H., Hansen, W.D., Seidl, R., Rammer, W., Turner, M.G. (2017): Age alone is not enough: Multiple drivers control postfire stand development in Rocky Mountain conifers.
[Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America, Portland, OR, AUG. 6-11, 2017]

In: Ecological Society of America, Annual Meeting

Hansen, W.D., Braziunas, K.H., Seidl, R., Rammer, W., Turner, M.G.. (2017): A perfect storm: Multiple stressors interact to drive postfire regeneration failure of lodgepole pine and Douglas-fir forests in Yellowstone.
[Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America, Portland, OR, AUG. 6-11, 2017]

In: Ecological Society of America, Annual Meeting