Forest disturbance in a changing world
Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change has profound impacts on ecological processes and is rapidly changing the composition, structure, and functioning of ecosystems. For long-lived ecosystems such as forests the unprecedented pace of these changes will strongly limit the ability for adaptation through genetic and evolutionary processes. As systems are increasingly ill-adapted to their environment, abrupt and disruptive changes are getting increasingly likely. Over the past decades, disturbance events such as windthrow, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires have already increased markedly in forests around the globe. Yet, our understanding of the long-term changes in forest disturbance regimes and their impacts is still limited, hampering our ability to address these changes in ecosystem management. Using an innovative multi-method approach the project will (i) improve our systems understanding of the drivers of forest disturbance regimes, (ii) lead to a comprehensive appraisal of the impacts of current and future disturbance regimes on biological diversity and ecosystem services, and, based on these insights, (iii) develop strategies on how ecosystem management and society at large can cope with changing forest disturbance regimes. To address these questions we will study landscapes in Central Europe, contrasting unmanaged forests (e.g., national parks) with managed forest landscapes in similar biogeographical settings. For this network of study landscapes we will use tree ring analysis to reconstruct the disturbance regimes of past centuries, apply remote sensing to estimate current disturbance severity and extent, and harness simulation modeling to project future trajectories under an ensemble of climate change scenarios. Based on this multi-century analysis we will for the first time in Europe be able to determine whether and how current and future disturbance regimes transgress the historical range of variability, and whether no-analog disturbance regimes are likely to emerge in the future. We will furthermore assess how changing disturbance regimes will affect biodiversity, and quantify their impacts on provisioning (e.g., timber production), regulating (e.g., carbon storage, water retention), cultural (e.g., the recreational value of a landscape), and supporting (e.g., primary productivity) services of forest ecosystems. Using simulation modeling embedded in a stakeholder process we will develop strategies of how to deal with such disturbance impacts, and how to optimally manage landscapes under different management objectives (conservation of biological diversity, provisioning of different ecosystem services). Novel simulation approaches will furthermore be used to scale results up to the regional scale, and provide policy makers and disaster risk managers with detailed information on future forest-related risks. The project will thus not only strongly advance the frontiers in disturbance ecology both with regard to process understanding and science-based ecosystem management, but will also deliver novel solutions for mitigating risks and fostering resilience to abrupt and disruptive changes in the environment in general.
forest ecosystem management disturbance ecology climate change impacts ecological modeling risk and resilience
Publikationen
Changing climate and disturbance regimes in Europe's forests: impacts and resilience
Autoren: Seidl, R. Jahr: 2016
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
A simulation platform to assess forest landscape resilience
Autoren: Rammer, W; Seidl, R Jahr: 2016
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Spatial variability in tree regeneration after wildfire delays and dampens future bark beetle outbreaks.
Autoren: Seidl, R; Donato, DC; Raffa, KF; Turner, MG; Jahr: 2016
Journal articles
To Model or not to Model, That is no Longer the Question for Ecologists
Autoren: Seidl, R Jahr: 2017
Journal articles
Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?
Autoren: Reyer, CPO; Bathgate, S; Blennow, K; Borges, JG; Bugmann, H; Delzon, S; Faias, SP; Garcia-Gonzalo, J; Gardiner, B; Gonzalez-Olabarria, JR; Gracia, C; Hernandez, JG; Kellomaki, S; Kramer, K; Lexer, MJ; Lindner, M; van der Maaten, E; Maroschek, M; Muys, B; Nicoll, B; Palahi, M; Palma, JHN; Paulo, JA; Peltola, H; Pukkala, T; Rammer, W; Ray, D; Sabate, S; Schelhaas, MJ; Seidl, R; Temperli, C; Tome, M; Yousefpour, R; Zimmermann, NE; Hanewinkel, M Jahr: 2017
Journal articles
Climate variability drives recent tree mortality in Europe.
Autoren: Neumann, M; Mues, V; Moreno, A; Hasenauer, H; Seidl, R; Jahr: 2017
Journal articles
The potential impact of invasive pests on carbon storage in Europe’s forests
Autoren: Seidl, R., Klonner, G., Rammer, W., Essl, F., Moreno, A., Neumann, M., Dullinger, S. Jahr: 2017
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Similarities and differences in forest disturbance dynamics across the European temperate forest biome
Autoren: Senf, C., Seidl, R. Jahr: 2017
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Similarities and differences in forest disturbance patterns across the European temperate forest biome
Autoren: Senf, C., Seidl, R. Jahr: 2017
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Assessing the resilience of Norway spruce forests through a model-based reanalysis of thinning trials
Autoren: Seidl, R; Vigl, F; Rossler, G; Neumann, M; Rammer, W Jahr: 2017
Journal articles
Changes of forest cover and disturbance regimes in the mountain forests of the Alps
Autoren: Bebi, P; Seidl, R; Motta, R; Fuhr, M; Firm, D; Krumm, F; Conedera, M; Ginzler, C; Wohlgemuth, T; Kulakowski, D Jahr: 2017
Journal articles
The historical disturbance regime of mountain Norway spruce forests in the Western Carpathians and its influence on current forest structure and composition
Autoren: Janda, P; Trotsiuk, V; Mikolas, M; Bace, R; Nagel, TA; Seidl, R; Seedre, M; Morrissey, RC; Kucbel, S; Jaloviar, P; Jasik, M; Vysoky, J; Samonil, P; Cada, V; Mrhalova, H; Labusova, J; Novakova, MH; Rydval, M; Mateju, L; Syoboda, M Jahr: 2017
Journal articles
A walk on the wild side: Disturbance dynamics and the conservation and management of European mountain forest ecosystems
Autoren: Kulakowski, D; Seidl, R; Holeksa, J; Kuuluvainen, T; Nagel, TA; Panayotov, M; Svoboda, M; Thorn, S; Vacchiano, G; Whitlock, C; Wohlgemuth, T; Bebi, P Jahr: 2017
Journal articles
Remote sensing of forest insect disturbances: Current state and future directions
Autoren: Senf, C; Seidl, R; Hostert, P Jahr: 2017
Journal articles
Forest disturbances under climate change
Autoren: Seidl, R; Thom, D; Kautz, M; Martin-Benito, D; Peltoniemi, M; Vacchiano, G; Wild, J; Ascoli, D; Petr, M; Honkaniemi, J; Lexer, MJ; Trotsiuk, V; Mairota, P; Svoboda, M; Fabrika, M; Nagel, TA; Reyer, CPO Jahr: 2017
Journal articles
Using Landsat time series for characterizing forest disturbance dynamics in the coupled human and natural systems of Central Europe
Autoren: Senf, C; Pflugmacher, D; Hostert, P; Seidl, R Jahr: 2017
Journal articles
Age alone is not enough: Multiple drivers control postfire stand development in Rocky Mountain conifers
Autoren: Braziunas, K.H., Hansen, W.D., Seidl, R., Rammer, W., Turner, M.G. Jahr: 2017
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
A perfect storm: Multiple stressors interact to drive postfire regeneration failure of lodgepole pine and Douglas-fir forests in Yellowstone
Autoren: Hansen, W.D., Braziunas, K.H., Seidl, R., Rammer, W., Turner, M.G.. Jahr: 2017
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Interactive effects of climate warming and invasive pests on European forest carbon storage
Autoren: Dullinger, S., Essl, F., Klonner, G., Rammer, W., Seidl R. Jahr: 2017
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Frontiers in forest disturbance research
Autoren: Seidl, R. Jahr: 2017
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Multi-scale drivers of forest disturbances across European temperate forests
Autoren: Senf, C., Seidl, R. Jahr: 2017
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Modeling changing forest disturbance regimes
Autoren: Seidl, R., Thom, D., Kautz, M., Martin-Benito, D., Peltoniemi, M., Vacchiano, G., Wild, J., Ascoli, D., Petr, M., Honkaniemi, J., Lexer, M., Trotsiuk, V., Mairota, P., Svoboda, M., Fabrika, M., Nagel, T., Reyer, C.P.O. Jahr: 2017
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Providing multiple ecosystem services in the face of changing disturbance regimes
Autoren: Albrich, K; Rammer, W; Thom, D; Seidl, R Jahr: 2017
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Understanding and modeling forest disturbances under climate change
Autoren: Seidl, R., Thom, D., Kautz, M., Martin-Benito, D., Peltoniemi, M., Vacchiano, G., Wild, J., Ascoli, D., Petr, M., Honkaniemi, J., Lexer, M.J., Trotsiuk, V., Mairota, P., Svoboda, M., Fabrika, M., Nagel, T.A., Reyer, C.P.O. Jahr: 2017
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes
Autoren: Thom, D; Rammer, W; Seidl, R Jahr: 2017
Journal articles
Natural disturbances are spatially diverse but temporally synchronized across temperate forest landscapes in Europe.
Autoren: Senf, C; Seidl, R; Jahr: 2018
Journal articles
Impacts of salvage logging on biodiversity: A meta-analysis
Autoren: Thorn, S; Bassler, C; Brandl, R; Burton, PJ; Cahall, R; Campbell, JL; Castro, J; Choi, CY; Cobb, T; Donato, DC; Durska, E; Fontaine, JB; Gauthier, S; Hebert, C; Hothorn, T; Hutto, RL; Lee, EJ; Leverkus, AB; Lindenmayer, DB; Obrist, MK; Rost, J; Seibold, S; Seidl, R; Thom, D; Waldron, K; Wermelinger, B; Winter, MB; Zmihorski, M; Muller, J Jahr: 2018
Journal articles
Harnessing landscape heterogeneity for managing future disturbance risks in forest ecosystems
Autoren: Seidl, R; Albrich, K; Thom, D; Rammer, W Jahr: 2018
Journal articles
Modelling understorey dynamics in temperate forests under global change-Challenges and perspectives
Autoren: Landuyt, D; Perring, MP; Seidl, R; Taubert, F; Verbeeck, H; Verheyen, K Jahr: 2018
Journal articles
A first satellite-based estimation of recent (1984-2017) trends in forest disturbances for Central Europe
Autoren: Senf, C., Pflugmacher, D., Zhiqiang, Y., Sebald, S., Knorn, J., Hostert, P., Seidl, R. Jahr: 2018
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Post-disturbance ground vegetation effects on carbon sequestration in a temperate forest landscape
Autoren: Dirnböck, T., Kraus, D., Kobler, J., Thom, D., Seidl, R., Haas, E., Kiese, R. Jahr: 2018
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Landsat time series allow for the quantification of forest management and patch size effects on post-disturbance recovery trajectories
Autoren: Senf, C., Müller, J., Seidl, R. Jahr: 2018
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Looking beyond the mean: Drivers of variability in postfire stand development of Rocky Mountain conifers
Autoren: Braziunas, K.H., Hansen, W.D., Seidl, R., Rammer, W., Turner, M.G. Jahr: 2018
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
It takes a few to tango: changing climate and fire regimes can cause regeneration failure of two subalpine conifers
Autoren: Hansen, WD; Braziunas, KH; Rammer, W; Seidl, R; Turner, MG Jahr: 2018
Journal articles
Large-scale disturbance legacies and the climate sensitivity of primary Picea abies forests
Autoren: Schurman, JS; Trotsiuk, V; Bace, R; Cada, V; Fraver, S; Janda, P; Kulakowski, D; Labusova, J; Mikolas, M; Nagel, TA; Seidl, R; Synek, M; Svobodova, K; Chaskovskyy, O; Teodosiu, M; Svoboda, M Jahr: 2018
Journal articles
Invasive alien pests threaten the carbon stored in Europe's forests
Autoren: Seidl, R; Klonner, G; Rammer, W; Essl, F; Moreno, A; Neumann, M; Dullinger, S Jahr: 2018
Journal articles
Risiko durch neuartige Schadorganismen
Autoren: Seidl, R; Rammer, W; Neumann, M; Moreno, A; Dullinger, S; Essl, F; Klonner, G Jahr: 2018
Journal articles
beta-Diversity, Community Assembly, and Ecosystem Functioning
Autoren: Mori, AS; Isbell, F; Seidl, R Jahr: 2018
Journal articles
Impacts of natural disturbances on forest carbon cycling and their implications for ecosystem management
Autoren: Seidl, R. Jahr: 2018
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Using long-term satellite records for monitoring forest health under climate change
Autoren: Senf, C., Seidl, R. Jahr: 2018
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Does carbon sequestration matter for managers of protected areas?
Autoren: Dirnböck, T., Kobler, J., Garstenauer, R., Grote, R., Kiese, R., Kraus, D., Schindlbacher, A., Thom, D., Seidl, R. Jahr: 2018
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Scaling vegetation dynamics: a novel approach for modeling vegetation transitions across large spatial scales based on deep learning
Autoren: Rammer, W; Seidl, R Jahr: 2018
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
What is the impact of salvage logging after disturbance on the landscape-scale forest carbon balance?
Autoren: Dobor, L; Hlásny, T; Rammer, W; Barka, I; Zimová, S; Seidl, R Jahr: 2018
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Resilience of mountain forest ecosystems to climate change
Autoren: Albrich, K; Rammer, W; Seidl, R Jahr: 2018
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Legacies of past land use have a stronger effect on forest carbon exchange than future climate change in a temperate forest landscape
Autoren: Thom, D; Rammer, W; Garstenauer, R; Seidl, R Jahr: 2018
Journal articles
Trade-offs between temporal stability and level of forest ecosystem services provisioning under climate change
Autoren: Albrich, K; Rammer, W; Thom, D; Seidl, R Jahr: 2018
Journal articles
Forest structure following natural disturbances and early succession provides habitat for two avian flagship species, capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) and hazel grouse (Tetrastes bonasia)
Autoren: Kortmann, M; Heurich, M; Latifi, H; Rosner, S; Seidl, R; Muller, J; Thorn, S Jahr: 2018
Journal articles
Forest disturbance in a changing world. Interim report.
Autoren: Seidl, R. Jahr: 2018
Forschungsbericht (extern. Auftraggeber)
Biodiversity along temperate forest succession
Autoren: Hilmers, T; Friess, N; Bassler, C; Heurich, M; Brandl, R; Pretzsch, H; Seidl, R; Muller, J Jahr: 2018
Journal articles
Patterns and drivers of recent disturbances across the temperate forest biome
Autoren: Sommerfeld, A; Senf, C; Buma, B; DxxxAmato, AW; Despres, T; Diaz-Hormazabal, I; Fraver, S; Frelich, LE; Gutierrez, AG; Hart, SJ; Harvey, BJ; He, HS; Hlasny, T; Holz, A; Kitzberger, T; Kulakowski, D; Lindenmayer, D; Mori, AS; Muller, J; Paritsis, J; Perry, GLW; Stephens, SL; Svoboda, M; Turner, MG; Veblen, TT; Seidl, R Jahr: 2018
Journal articles
Key ecological research questions for Central European forests
Autoren: Ammer, C; Fichtner, A; Fischer, A; Gossner, MM; Meyer, P; Seidl, R; Thomas, FM; Annighofer, P; Kreyling, J; Ohse, B; Berger, U; Feldmann, E; Haberle, KH; Heer, K; Heinrichs, S; Huth, F; Kramer-Klement, K; Molder, A; Muller, J; Mund, M; Opgenoorth, L; Schall, P; Scherer-Lorenzen, M; Seidel, D; Vogt, J; Wagner, S Jahr: 2018
Journal articles
Post-disturbance recovery of forest carbon in a temperate forest landscape under climate change
Autoren: Dobor, L; Hlasny, T; Rammer, W; Barka, I; Trombik, J; Pavlenda, P; Seben, V; Stepanek, P; Seidl, R Jahr: 2018
Journal articles
Looking beyond the mean: Drivers of variability in postfire stand development of conifers in Greater Yellowstone
Autoren: Braziunas, KH; Hansen, WD; Seidl, R; Rammer, W; Turner, MG Jahr: 2018
Journal articles
Canopy mortality has doubled in Europe's temperate forests over the last three decades
Autoren: Senf, C; Pflugmacher, D; Yang, ZQ; Sebald, J; Knorn, J; Neumann, M; Hostert, P; Seidl, R Jahr: 2018
Journal articles
Forest canopy disturbances increase the risk from torrential hazards in mountain regions
Autoren: Sebald, J; Senf, C; Scheidl, C; Heiser, M; Pflugmacher, D; Seidl, R Jahr: 2019
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Tree mortality submodels drive simulated long-term forest dynamics: assessing 15 models from the stand to global scale
Autoren: Bugmann, H; Seidl, R; Hartig, F; Bohn, F; Bruna, J; Cailleret, M; Francois, L; Heinke, J; Henrot, AJ; Hickler, T; Hulsmann, L; Huth, A; Jacquemin, I; Kollas, C; Lasch-Born, P; Lexer, MJ; Merganic, J; Merganicova, K; Mette, T; Miranda, BR; Nadal-Sala, D; Rammer, W; Rammig, A; Reineking, B; Roedig, E; Sabate, S; Steinkamp, J; Suckow, F; Vacchiano, G; Wild, J; Xu, CG; Reyer, CPO Jahr: 2019
Journal articles
Living with bark beetles: impacts, outlook and management options
Autoren: Hlásny, T., Krokene, P., Liebhold, A., Montagné-Huck, C., Müller, J., Qin, H., Raffa, K., Schelhaas, M.J., Seidl, R., Svoboda, M., Viiri, H. Jahr: 2019
Monographs
A scalable model of vegetation transitions using deep neural networks
Autoren: Rammer, W; Seidl, R Jahr: 2019
Journal articles
Topographic complexity increases the climate resilience of mountain forests
Autoren: Albrich, K; Rammer, W; Seidl, R Jahr: 2019
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Forest resilience to climate change: An investigation across scales
Autoren: Seidl, R. Jahr: 2019
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Are forested landscapes protecting against torrential hazards? Empirical large scale evidence from the Alps
Autoren: Sebald, J; Senf, C; Heiser, M; Scheidl, C; Pflugmacher, D; Seidl, R Jahr: 2019
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
What drives the future supply of regulating ecosystem services in a mountain forest landscape?
Autoren: Seidl, R; Albrich, K; Erb, K; Formayer, H; Leidinger, D; Leitinger, G; Tappeiner, U; Tasser, E; Rammer, W Jahr: 2019
Journal articles
Modelling the multi-scaled nature of pest outbreaks
Autoren: Wildemeersch, M; Franklin, O; Seidl, R; Rogelj, J; Moorthy, I; Thurner, S Jahr: 2019
Journal articles
Modeling natural disturbances
Autoren: Seidl, R. Jahr: 2019
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Post-disturbance recovery of forest cover and tree height differ with management in Central Europe
Autoren: Senf, C; Muller, J; Seidl, R Jahr: 2019
Journal articles
Harnessing Deep Learning in Ecology: An Example Predicting Bark Beetle Outbreaks
Autoren: Rammer, W; Seidl, R Jahr: 2019
Journal articles
The effects of forest cover and disturbance on torrential hazards: large-scale evidence from the Eastern Alps
Autoren: Sebald, J; Senf, C; Heiser, M; Scheidl, C; Pflugmacher, D; Seidl, R Jahr: 2019
Journal articles
Spatial configuration matters when removing windfelled trees to manage bark beetle disturbances in Central European forest landscapes.
Autoren: Dobor, L; Hlásny, T; Rammer, W; Zimová, S; Barka, I; Seidl, R; Jahr: 2020
Journal articles
Can wildland fire management alter 21st-century subalpine fire and forests in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming, USA?
Autoren: Hansen, WD; Abendroth, D; Rammer, W; Seidl, R; Turner, MG; Jahr: 2020
Journal articles
Tree defence and bark beetles in a drying world: carbon partitioning, functioning and modelling
Autoren: Huang, JB; Kautz, M; Trowbridge, AM; Hammerbacher, A; Raffa, KF; Adams, HD; Goodsman, DW; Xu, CG; Meddens, AJH; Kandasamy, D; Gershenzon, J; Seidl, R; Hartmann, H Jahr: 2020
Journal articles
The role of alpha and beta diversity in buffering the effects of intensifying disturbance regimes under climate change
Autoren: Sebald, J; Rammer, W; Seidl, R Jahr: 2020
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Norway spruce at the trailing edge: the effect of landscape configuration and composition on climate resilience
Autoren: Honkaniemi, J; Rammer, W; Seidl, R Jahr: 2020
Journal articles
Substantial understory contribution to the C sink of a European temperate mountain forest landscape
Autoren: Dirnb?ck, T; Kraus, D; Grote, R; Klatt, S; Kobler, J; Schindlbacher, A; Seidl, R; Thom, D; Kiese, R Jahr: 2020
Journal articles
Einfluss von Störungen auf Wildbachereignisse
Autoren: Sebald, J; Senf, C; Seidl, R Jahr: 2020
Journal articles
Mitarbeiter*Innen
Rupert Seidl
Dipl.-Ing. Dr. Rupert Seidl
rupert.seidl@boku.ac.at
Project Leader
01.03.2016 - 28.02.2022
Werner Rammer
Dipl.-Ing. Dr. Werner Rammer
Project Staff
01.03.2016 - 13.06.2016
Project Staff
07.10.2016 - 28.02.2022
BOKU Partner
Externe Partner
European Forest Institute
keiner
partner
Bavarian Forest National Park
keiner
partner
Forest Research Institute Zvolen
keiner
partner
Czech University of Life Sciences Prague
keiner
partner