The effect of natural disturbances on the risk from hydrogeomorphic hazards under climate change.
Abstract
PROTECTED proposes a multi-factor and multi-level study on how impacts on the risk perception from hydrogeomorphic hazards can be specified, caused by the interaction between climate change scenarios and forestry. The proposed project will elucidate the perception of stakeholders on the risk from changing disturbance regimes, and will use simulations to assess how alternative management strategies can mitigate disturbance changes, and thus benefit the protection against natural hazards. Combining methods from forestry, hydrology, geotechnical engineering and risk research, PROTECTED uses an integral approach to assess possible effects of natural disturbances on hydrogeomorphic hazards in the perspective of future protection forest developments. The proposed project will conduct an ensemble of forest landscape simulations (iLand), assessing the impact of future changes in natural disturbance regimes on four selected torrential catchments. PROTECTED will apply the conceptual hydrological model (ZEMOKOST) for drainage rate simulations as well as a distributed interception/slope stability model combination (DHSVM) to simulate mobilised sediment volumes, which will allow to quantify the effect of future forest changes on hydrogeomorphic hazards based on typical rainfall patterns with a moderate recurrence interval (T<50y). Beside process based simulations, PROTECTED also emphasis to identify the risk perception and adaptive capacity to mitigate a probable loss of protection functions in forests. For this reason, a postal survey among forestry actors will be performed to assess forest managers concern and willingness to engage in natural hazards management. To this end, PROTECTED will explore the effect of adaptive management in reducing the effect of changing disturbance regimes.
Publikationen
What drives the future supply of regulating ecosystem services in a mountain forest landscape?
Autoren: Seidl, R; Albrich, K; Erb, K; Formayer, H; Leidinger, D; Leitinger, G; Tappeiner, U; Tasser, E; Rammer, W Jahr: 2019
Journal articles
The effects of forest cover and disturbance on torrential hazards: large-scale evidence from the Eastern Alps
Autoren: Sebald, J; Senf, C; Heiser, M; Scheidl, C; Pflugmacher, D; Seidl, R Jahr: 2019
Journal articles
Project staff
Christian Scheidl
Priv.-Doz. Dipl.-Ing. Dr.nat.techn. Christian Scheidl
christian.scheidl@boku.ac.at
Tel: +43 1 47654-87116
Project Leader
01.05.2017 - 30.04.2019
Thomas Thaler
Priv.-Doz. MMag. Thomas Thaler Ph.D.
thomas.thaler@boku.ac.at
Tel: +43 1 47654-85412
Project Staff
01.05.2017 - 30.04.2019
BOKU partners
External partners
Federal Forest Office (BFW)
Dr. Gerhard Markart
partner