Development and validation of a phenology model for forecasting the population dynamics of the spruce web-spinning sawfly, Cephalcia abietis
Abstract
The spruce web-spinning sawfly, Cephalcia abietis, is a primary pest with irrgular gradations in European mature spruce forests. Mass outbreaks are difficult to predict because the insect spends several years as a prepupa (resting larva) inside an earth‐walled chamber in the soil. Increasing temperatures due to climate change may shorten the generation cycle (voltinism) of the sawfly, probably resulting in more frequent outbreaks and higher damage on spruce in the near future. Our model sawfly population in the northern part of the Waldviertel/Lower Austria has a 3-year-population cycle. Since the last outbreak in 2013, this population is permanently monitored. The next mass swarming of the wasps is expected for spring 2019. With the necessary number of insects available, we will determine the thermal sums for individual stages of sawfly development and establish a phenology model in order to predict the population dynamics from air and soil temperatures and use it as a practical and simple monitoring tool to forecast sawfly mass outbreaks.
keywords Climate change Cephalcia abietis Degree-days Development threshold Modelling
Publikationen
A temperature-dependent growth model for eggs and larvae of the spruce web-spinning sawfly Cephalcia abietis (Hym., Pamphiliidae)
Autoren: Wedenig, E; Schafellner, C Jahr: 2020
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Ein temperaturbasiertes Modell für die Embryonal- und Larvalentwicklung der Fichtengespinstblattwespe Cephalcia abietis
Autoren: Wedenig, E; Schafellner, C Jahr: 2021
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Project staff
Christa Schafellner
Priv.-Doz. Dr.phil. Christa Schafellner
christa.schafellner@boku.ac.at
Tel: +43 1 47654-91619
Project Leader
01.04.2019 - 30.06.2025