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Development of a method to predict the occurrence of extreme events from large-scale meteorological fields (re-analyses and GCMs)

Project Leader
Seibert Petra, BOKU Project Leader
Duration:
01.03.2003-30.11.2003
Type of Research
Basic Research

Further information: http://www.boku.ac.at/met/envmet/startclim4.html

Staff
Frank Andreas, Project Staff (bis 31.07.2006)
BOKU Research Units
Institute of Meteorology and Climatology
Funded by
Abstract
A new method shall be worked out which allows to derive
the occurrence of extrem events at stations in Austria from
large-scale meteorological fields. This will enable downscaling of GCM
results for local events on a synoptic time scale. The difference of
this method to previous approachs is the consideration of the temporal
dimension, either as highly resolved sequence of fields or through 3-d
back trajectories, an approach that is completely new in this context.
For the fields, parameters shall be used wich are as immediately
linked as possible with the weather events, such as wind speed and
direction, vorticity and its advection, temperature advection,
moisture content etc. The method of analogues shall be applied to
these quantities by means of a suitable distance function.
Furthermore, cluster analyses shall be carried out for the
characteristic extreme events to allow a judgement whether the
occurrence of synoptic sequences relevant for events in a GCM control
run corresponds to that in a re-analysis. As extreme events, heavy
precipitation and wind storms in different regions of Austria shall be
investigated. The developement will be based on re-analysis fields
with high temporal resolution.
Keywords
climatology; meteorology;
cluster analysis; heavy precipitation; trajectories;
Publications

** Seibert, P., A. Frank, and H. Formayer Synoptic and regional patterns of heavy precipitation in Austria.

Theor. Appl. Climatol., 87 (1-4), 139-153, DOI 10.1007/s00704-006-0198-8 WoS FullText FullText_BOKU

Seibert, P., A. Frank (2004): Klimatologisch-synoptische Analyse von Starkniederschlägen in Österreich auf der Basis von Rückwärtstrajektorien..
[Deutsch - Österreichisch - Schweizerische Meteorologen - Tagung. 2004, Karlsruhe, Germany, 07.09.2004 - 10.09.2004]

In: DMG/SGM/ÖGM/IMK: Deutsch - Österreichisch - Schweizerische Meteorologen - Tagung, 7. bis 10. September 2004, Karlsruhe, Deutschland; CDROM, 9 pp

Frank, A., Seibert, P. (2003): Diagnose von Extremereignissen aus großräumigen meteorologischen Feldern.

Endberichts von StartClim.4; in StartClim: Erste Analysen extremer Wetterereignisse und ihre Auswirkungen in Österreich",Auftraggeber: BMLFUW, BMBWK, BMWA, Österreichische Nationalbank, Österreichische Hagelversicherung, Umweltbundesamt FullText

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