Development of a method to predict the occurrence of extreme events from large-scale meteorological fields (re-analyses and GCMs)
Abstract
A new method shall be worked out which allows to derive the occurrence of extrem events at stations in Austria from large-scale meteorological fields. This will enable downscaling of GCM results for local events on a synoptic time scale. The difference of this method to previous approachs is the consideration of the temporal dimension, either as highly resolved sequence of fields or through 3-d back trajectories, an approach that is completely new in this context. For the fields, parameters shall be used wich are as immediately linked as possible with the weather events, such as wind speed and direction, vorticity and its advection, temperature advection, moisture content etc. The method of analogues shall be applied to these quantities by means of a suitable distance function. Furthermore, cluster analyses shall be carried out for the characteristic extreme events to allow a judgement whether the occurrence of synoptic sequences relevant for events in a GCM control run corresponds to that in a re-analysis. As extreme events, heavy precipitation and wind storms in different regions of Austria shall be investigated. The developement will be based on re-analysis fields with high temporal resolution.
trajectories cluster analysis heavy precipitation
Publikationen
Diagnose von Extremereignissen aus großräumigen meteorologischen Feldern
Autoren: Frank, A., Seibert, P. Jahr: 2003
Forschungsbericht (extern. Auftraggeber)
Klimatologisch-synoptische Analyse von Starkniederschlägen in Österreich auf der Basis von Rückwärtstrajektorien.
Autoren: Seibert, P., A. Frank Jahr: 2004
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Synoptic and regional patterns of heavy precipitation in Austria
Autoren: Seibert, P., A. Frank, and H. Formayer Jahr: 2007
Journal articles
Project staff
Petra Seibert
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Petra Seibert
petra.seibert@boku.ac.at
Tel: +43 1 47654-81417
BOKU Project Leader
01.03.2003 - 30.11.2003