Climate change and heavy-precipitation weather patterns in Austria
Abstract
Global circulation models used to investigate climate change scenarios have a typical spatial resolution, depending on the type of run, between 2.5 and 1 degree. At such resolutions, orographic effects important for the occurrence, magnitude and distribution of precipitation in Austria are not simulated well. This applies even more to extreme events such as heavy precipitation events. Lee cyclogenesis, one of the most important synoptic situations for precipitation in the south and east of Austria, tends to be underestimated or even missed in coarse-resolution models. The reliability of scenario predictions for the Alpine region are therefore difficult to evaluate. In a previous project (Startclim.4) a method was developed to identify synoptic patterns which are associated with heavy precipitation in Austria using a back-trajectory clustering algorithm, based on data of the 15 year re-analysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, 1979-1993) in conjunction with Austrian daily climate station data. This study focussed on the development of the clustering method, the identification of regions with similar heavy precipitation patterns, and the investigation of the precipitation patterns for the different synoptic situations identified. The next step proposed here is to apply this methodology to the past and to future climate scenarios in order to study how the frequency and intensity of synoptic patterns which are responsible for heavy precipitation in Austria has developed in the past ~25 years, how well the statistics of the occurrence of these patterns is reproduced by GCM control runs and how the occurrence of these patterns would change in simulated future climate scenarios.
Alpine Space heavy-precipitation Climate change
Publikationen
Synoptic and regional patterns of heavy precipitation in Austria
Autoren: Seibert, P., A. Frank, and H. Formayer Jahr: 2007
Journal articles
Diurnal precipitation patterns over Austria
Autoren: A. Yaqub and P. Seibert Jahr: 2007
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Diurnal precipitation cycle over Austria and its relationship with orographically induced circulations
Autoren: Asma Yaqub and Petra Seibert Jahr: 2007
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Diurnal precipitation cycle in Austria
Autoren: Yaqub, A; Seibert, P; Formayer, H Jahr: 2011
Journal articles
Project staff
Petra Seibert
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Petra Seibert
petra.seibert@boku.ac.at
Tel: +43 1 47654-81417
Project Leader
20.06.2005 - 30.06.2009