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Model development for regional/large scale spatial risk assessment of bark beetle epidemics

Project Leader
Schopf Axel, Project Leader
Type of Research
Applied Research
Project partners
Federal Forest Office (BFW), Seckendorff-Gudent-Weg 8, 1131 Wien, Austria.
Function of the Project Partner: Partner
Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Hohe Warte 38, 1190 Wien, Austria.
Function of the Project Partner: Koordinator
Hasenauer Hubert, Project Staff
Baier Peter, Project Staff
Pennerstorfer Josef, Project Staff
Petritsch Richard, Project Staff (bis 15.09.2011)
BOKU Research Units
Institute of Forest Entomology, Forest Pathology and Forest Protection
Institute of Forest Growth
Funded by
Austrian Forest Agency, Purkersdorf, Austria, Pummergasse 10 – 12 , 3002 Purkersdorf, Austria
Amt der Niederösterreichischen Landesregierung, Landhausplatz 1, A-3109 St. Pölten, Austria
Amt der Steiermärkischen Landesregierung, Entenplatz 1, 8020 Graz, Austria
Amt der Salzburger Landesregierung, 5020 Salzburg, Austria
Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management , Stubenring 1, A-1012 Wien, Austria
Actual assessment and spatial analysis of risks of bark beetle epidemics is an important tool for decision-making processes in forest management concerning land use planning, ranking of priorities, and implementation of preventive silvicultural as well as curative pest management measures. The proposed model for risk assessment at regional scale opens up options for monitoring of the bark beetle development at large spatial scale, and for timely notice of initial manifestations of critical epidemic situations (“hot spots”). Besides monitoring, an assessment of future scenarios based on climatic projections can be done, which is relevant for long-term planning of prospective silvicultural measures. The aim of the proposed project is the development of a model for regional/large scale risk assessment of bark beetle outbreaks, i.e. outbreaks of the European Spruce Bark Beetle, Ips typographus. Based on meteorological and topographic data, a climatic model for the complex, alpine terrain will be established with high-resolution. The integration of the thermal requirements of bark beetle development will then be used for mapping and online forecasting of bark beetle development. The tasks of the proposed project comprise: programming of the online integration of meteorological data of recording stations, adaptation of the climatic model DAYMET, topo-climatic modelling using the data of a digital elevation model, climatic data of recording stations, and data from image analysis of METEOSAT-satellite images. The validation of the model output will be done using existing datasets concerning onset of spring swarming, bark beetle development, bark beetle infestation, and damage at local scale (Kalkalpen national park 2001-2003) and of existing bark beetle monitoring programs at regional scale.
computer-aided simulation; ecological system research; bioclimatology; forest entomology; forest protection;
Bioclimatology; Bark Beetle; Forest Protection; Ips typographus; Risk assessment;

Pennerstorfer, J.; Netherer, S.; Baier, P.; Schopf, A. (2009): Biodiversität in Waldökosystemen Eine Voraussetzung zur Vermeidung von Borkenkäfer-Massenvermehrungen . [Poster]
[Satoyama-Symposium 2009 - BOKU Naturschutz- und Biodiversitätsforschung, Vienna, Austria, 16.10.2009]


Schopf, A., Baier, P., Pennerstorfer, J., Hasenauer, H., Petritsch, R. (2007): Entwicklung eines Modells zur regionalen/überregionalen Risikoabschätzung von Borkenkäfer-Kalamitäten.

BMLFUW, div. Bundesländer, Öbf, 63

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