Save our surface
Abstract
The use of non-renewable resources must be reduced or replaced by renewables, with biomass playing a crucial role. As a result, competition between material and energetic uses of biomass as well as between the production of biomass and food occurs. Land use-competition can be aggravated if productivity is reduced due to climate change as well as rising prices and shortages of fossil materials. The main goal of the project is the development of political options for a sustainable land use in Austria in view of (1) climate change, (2) rising prices and shortages of fossil materials and chemical fertilizers and (3) a growing demand for biomass. „SOS” thus proposes concrete governance procedures and strategies based on simulations in order to minimize land use-competition. Decision making that effectively reduces land-use competition requires information on long-term yield prospects of the Austrian agriculture and forestry that provides food and biomass. Different land use-scenarios are designed in order to demonstrate the consequences of specific development paths of the energetic and material system towards renewables. In the light of the pressing demand for political action to secure the natural basis of human survival, „normative” scenarios (see p. 6) are relevant to decision making. For the designing of such land use-scenarios until 2050 we will carry out the following steps: (1) Modelling of potential types of land use. The potential distribution of forest, field crops, agroforestry cultures and grasland types are modelled with GIS in high spatial resolution. A regionalized climate scenario enables to model potential land use-types and yields until 2050. (2) Development of scenarios of energetic and material demand and production. The effects of several scenarios of a regional switch to renewables with differing degrees of phasing out fossil resources on the distribution of land use-types in Austria are modelled in a spatially explicit manner until 2050. The difference between domestic production of biomass and food and the level of consumption must be covered by imports. The project thus assesses the status and trends of biomass imports of Austria. (3) Evaluation of scenarios. All scenarios are evaluated with regard to consumption levels, required efficiency gains and biomass imports, changes in lifestyle and consumer behaviour and economic consequences. In a second step, each scenario is evaluated with respect to the preconditions and possible effects on regions exporting biomass. In order to stimulate proactive governance and to develop regulation strategies, a participative, nationwide process with stakeholders is organized, comprising 3 phases: (1) Compilation of a manual. Resource assessments, development of demand and production as well as the evaluation of scenarios are summarized in a manual. (2) Sensitivity analysis. The project team produces a model of the system „land use in Austria“ including the crucial system parameters and their relations. With this model a sensitivity analysis in the sense of Frederic Vester is made together with stakeholders in workshops. (3) Development of policy scenarios. Sensitivity analysis results in different policy scenarios that are simulated and subsequently interpreted by stakeholders. Based on a comparison of policies and policy options for adapting to resource shortages in Europe and North America, options and requirements for a sustainable land use in Austria are developed with special focus on non-state actors and civil society regulation capacities.
keywords global change forest biomass computer simulation null
Publikationen
Project staff
Manfred Josef Lexer
Univ.Prof. Dipl.-Ing. Dr.nat.techn. Manfred Josef Lexer
mj.lexer@boku.ac.at
Tel: +43 1 47654-91316
BOKU Project Leader
01.05.2009 - 30.04.2011
BOKU partners
External partners
HBLFA Raumberg-Gumpenstein
none
partner
ED&P Umweltbüro GmbH
Mag Andreas Exner
partner
Wegener Zentrum für Klima und Globalen Wandel
none
partner
energieautark consulting gmbh
none
partner
Institute of Interdisciplinary Research and Education, Department Social Ecology
none
partner