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Project partners: National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Tzarigradsko Chaussee Bulvd. 66, 1784 Sofia, Bulgaria.
Contact person: Dr. Neykov;
Function of the Project Partner: Partner

Staff: Eitzinger Josef, Project Staff; Kubu Gerhard, Project Staff; Laaha Gregor, Project Staff

BOKU Research Units: Institute of Meteorology and Climatology; Institute of Statistics

Funded by: Eigenfinanzierung - Department für Raum, Landschaft und Infrastruktur, Austria

Abstract: Investigation of the links between atmospheric circulation patterns (including Europe-Atlantic window 30°W–60°E, 20°N–70°N) and precipitation over the Northern Austria during the period 1960-2011 will be explored. Trends in precipitation process and circulation type frequency will be quantified. Homogeneous hidden Markov Models and non-homogeneous (non-stationary) hidden Markov Models for relating precipitation occurrence and amounts at a network of rain gauges stations to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns will be developed. The models will be fitted to a spread of 30 rain gauges broadly covering Northern Austria. An assessment of the fitted models by comparison of model simulated rainfall statistics to historical rainfall statistics will be made. Methods to simulate rainfall occurrence and amount at sites that belong to the network of rain gauges, however, not explicitly included in the model will be developed. Software in R for fitting the above mentioned models and simulation of precipitation scenarios will be developed.

Keywords: Fourier analysis; Statistics; meteorology; hydrology;; atmospheric circulation patterns; Hidden Markov Models; precipitation patterns;