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Gewählte Publikation:

Loschner, L; Herrnegger, M; Apperl, B; Senoner, T; Seher, W; Nachtnebel, HP.
(2017): Flood risk, climate change and settlement development: a micro-scale assessment of Austrian municipalities
REG ENVIRON CHANGE. 2017; 17(2): 311-322. FullText FullText_BOKU

This paper analyses the influence of climate change and land development on future flood risk for selected Austrian flood-prone municipalities. As part of an anticipatory micro-scale risk assessment we simulated four different inundation scenarios for current and future 100- and 300-year floods (which included a climate change allowance), developed scenarios of future settlement growth in floodplains and evaluated changes in flood damage potentials and flood risk until the year 2030. Findings show that both climate change and settlement development significantly increase future levels of flood risk. However, the respective impacts vary strongly across the different cases. The analysis indicates that local conditions, such as the topography of the floodplain, the spatial allocation of vulnerable land uses or the type of land development (e.g. residential, commercial or industrial) in the floodplain are the key determinants of the respective effects of climate change and land development on future levels of flood risk. The case study analysis highlights the general need for a more comprehensive consideration of the local determinants of flood risk in order to increase the effectiveness of an adaptive management of flood risk dynamics.
Autor*innen der BOKU Wien:
Apperl Benjamin
Herrnegger Mathew
Löschner Lukas
Nachtnebel Hans-Peter
Seher Walter
Senoner Tobias

Find related publications in this database (Keywords)
Flood risk assessment
Flood damage
Hazard exposure
Climate change
Settlement development

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