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Gewählte Publikation:

Fuchs, S; Heiser, M; Schlogl, M; Zischg, A; Papathoma-Kohle, M; Keiler, M.
(2019): Short communication: A model to predict flood loss in mountain areas
ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW. 2019; 117: 176-180. FullText FullText_BOKU

Because effects of climate change and an increase in elements at risk, mountain hazard loss increased throughout Europe. Yet, factors influencing loss, i.e. vulnerability, have gained less attention to date. Vulnerability is defined as the degree of loss resulting from the hazard impact on buildings. Recent studies have focused on evaluating vulnerability to dynamic flooding using proxies from case studies and based on empirical ex-post approaches. However, the transferability to other case studies and, therefore, the ability of such models to actually predict future losses is limited. To overcome this gap, we present a beta model based on loss data from the European Alps, which clearly shows that a single vulnerability function is sufficient to predict losses resulting from different types of torrential hazards and to provide probabilities of destruction under specific scenarios. As a result, the curves are transferable and may significantly increase the predictive power of risk analyses.
Autor*innen der BOKU Wien:
Fuchs Sven
Heiser Micha
Papathoma-Köhle Maria
Schlögl Matthias
BOKU Gendermonitor:

Find related publications in this database (Keywords)
Elements at risk
Torrential hazards
Zero-and-one inflated beta regression

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