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Selected Publication:

Probstl-Haider, U; Mostegl, NM; Kelemen-Finan, J; Haider, W; Formayer, H; Kantelhardt, J; Moser, T; Kapfer, M; Trenholm, R.
(2016): Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change
ENVIRON MANAGE, 58, 446-464; ISSN 0364-152X FullText FullText_BOKU

Abstract:
Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmersxxx decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.
Authors BOKU Wien:
Formayer Herbert
Kantelhardt Jochen
Kapfer Martin
Kelemen-Finan Julia
Moser Tobias
Mostegl Nina
Pröbstl-Haider Ulrike

Find related publications in this database (Keywords)
Decision-making
Climate change
Environmental premiums
Agri-environmental protection schemes
Land use change
Biodiversity
Austria


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