Fire in the Future: Uncertainties and Interactions with Ecosystems and Society

Fire is a widespread phenomenon and an important part of the Earth system. It is ubiquitous, being an intrinsic part of the ecology and diversity of most ecosystems. The use of fire for cooking played a fundamental role in the evolution of the human species, and most energy use is still linked to burning of either biomass or fossil resources. Vegetation fires have accompanied the human species for a very long time- They not only occur naturally, e.g. due to lightning, but are also an integral part of land use. Even in non-agricultural areas large parts show indications for a strong anthropogenic influence on fire regimes. The relationship between humans and wildfire in the contemporary world is complex and varies greatly among cultures, subsistence livelihoods, and economic status. On the one hand, humans intentionally use wildfires for deforestation and within land use systems, in particular in pastoralism and swidden cultivation. In some regions, controlled burns are also used to reduce the risk of uncontrolled wildfires. On the other hand, uncontrolled wildfires can become a threat to human societies, potentially creating conflicts in regions where these different modes coexist. Furthermore, large wildfires and intensive agricultural burning pose a risk to air quality and human health, causing loss of property and lives and severe impacts on the global carbon cycle. Understanding the dynamics of large-scale fires and their interactions with climate, vegetation and human society is thus a sine qua non for a targeted fire management that reduces these risks while maintaining fire’s ecological role in a changing environment. Due to the complex interactions between vegetation, climate and humans, fire in a future environment is increasingly investigated with global-scale modelling tools that account for climate change, atmospheric CO2, and humans, and the interactions of fire with land use change and vegetation structure. Global fire modelling is a relatively new field. Up to now there is no consensus regarding the relative importance of the main fire controls in different regions and under different future scenarios, in particular regarding the strength of human influence. In FURNACES we aim to better understand and account for the role of humans and societies for fire activity as well as to understand consequences of future changes in fire activity for ecosystems and society. FURNACES will integrate research that focuses on future fire risk assessment with socio-economic relevance including uncertainties and interactions with ecosystems and society. In FURNACES, we bridge between different disciplines, not only in the natural sciences, but also between natural and social/economic sciences. The combination of remote sensing data, state of the art fire models and ground level data extracted from literature, field studies and databases will be an innovative and valuable contribution to the fire research field.