CIRCEUS A Circular Low Carbon EU and the Global South

There is increasing scientific evidence that current resource consumption patterns in industrialised societies are unsustainable, contributing to climate change, biodiversity loss and resource depletion (Richardson et al., 2023). In addition, the competition for resources is a primary driver of conflicts, posing significant security risks as demands intensify across industrialised and emerging economies (UNEP 2024; Zhou and Manberger 2024). Several studies highlight that perceptions of EU policies in resource-exporting countries are complex an mixed. While the EU is recognized as an important trading partner, there is significant criticism about various aspects of EU trade and climate policies that are seen as disadvantageous to their economic interests and development goals. Hence, as also confirmed by EU officials in the preparatory workshop, there is an urgent need for the EU to better understand and engage with perspectives from the Global South to improve its credibility and positive impact. Addressing these challenges is even more difficult due to the limited analysis to date on the quantitative effect of the EU’s decarbonisation and circular-economy strategies regarding (1) how possible pathways in the EU change raw material demands and related GHG emissions; (2) how these different changes in raw material demand alter supply chains, trade partners and traded materials; (3) and how these shifts influence social, economic and environmental conditions in resource-exporting countries, from the perspective of affected communities and government institutions; (4) the potential role of EU policies in fostering responsible partnerships and supporting just transitions in these countries. CIRCEUS aims to bridge this gap by, for the first time, providing quantitative evidence on how the EU’s decarbonisation and circular economy strategies impact its demand for raw materials and subsequently its imports. This evidence will generate new scientific insights and provide a basis for a more informed debate about transformation pathways in the EU that support equitable outcomes in resource-exporting countries including their local and indigenous communities affected by resource exploitation, recognizing the need to balance resource demands with social and environmental considerations, and to aim for cooperation rather than competition.