Uncertainty propagation in integrated modelling approaches for global change impacts on the bio-economy
Abstract
The project aims at • representing the Austrian bio-economy in an integrated modelling framework under changing climate, policy and market conditions at local and global scales, • identifying and analyzing types and sources of uncertainty in the integrated modelling framework, and at • communicating the uncertainties to potential users in an efficient format The integrated modelling framework for the assessment of the Austrian bio-economy consists of a bio-physical process model, an agronomic model, a spatially explicit bottom-up model of the Austrian agricultural and forestry sector, a bottom-up partial-equilibrium model of the global agricultural and forestry sector, as well as an econometric Input-Output model of the Austrian economy. Uncertainties and their propagation through the integrated assessment framework will be identified in several steps. First, we will define types and sources of uncertainties. Second, we will identify model parameters and model input data that are of interest to both model developers and stakeholders, ideally selecting those that are likely to have significant impact on both, the outcome of the integrated assessment framework and on uncertainty. This will be done in the context of climate, market and policy scenarios. Third, an adequate uncertainty analysis method has to be chosen based on the required time and computational resources. Finally, we will analyze the generated modelling framework output uncertainty in order to identify the contribution of single sources and types of uncertainty to modelling framework sensitivity and uncertainty. The project results should contribute to identifying robust mitigation and adaptation strategies in the Austrian bio-economy, to analyzing inherent uncertainties and to communicate these uncertainties to policy makers in a jointly developed and efficient format.
keywords Integrated Modeling Uncertainty Propagation Land Use Climate Change
Publikationen
Propagation von Unsicherheiten in einem integrativen Modellverbund zur Analyse von Auswirkungen globaler Veränderungen auf die österreichische Bioökonomie (UncertProp)
Autoren: Mitter, H; Kirchner, M; Schneider, U; Prutsch, A; Schmid, E; Jahr: 2018
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Project staff
Erwin Schmid
Univ.Prof. Dipl.-Ing. Dr. Erwin Schmid
erwin.schmid@boku.ac.at
Tel: +43 1 47654-73002
Project Leader
01.06.2017 - 31.05.2020
Katharina Falkner
Dipl.-Ing. Dr. Katharina Falkner B.Sc.
katharina.falkner@boku.ac.at
Tel: +43 1 47654-73125
Project Staff
01.06.2017 - 31.05.2020
Katrin Karner
Dr. Katrin Karner
katrin.karner@boku.ac.at
Tel: +43 1 47654-73125
Project Staff
01.06.2017 - 31.05.2020
Johannes Schmidt
Assoc. Prof. Priv.-Doz. Dipl.-Ing. Dr.nat.techn. Johannes Schmidt
johannes.schmidt@boku.ac.at
Tel: +43 1 47654-73118
Project Staff
01.06.2017 - 31.05.2020
Martin Schönhart
Dipl.-Ing. Mag. Dr. Martin Schönhart
martin.schoenhart@boku.ac.at
Tel: +43 1 47654-73124
Project Staff
01.06.2017 - 31.05.2020
Hermine Mitter
Priv.-Doz. DDipl.Ing. Dr. Hermine Mitter
hermine.mitter@boku.ac.at
Tel: +43 1 47654-73121
Sub Projectleader
01.06.2017 - 31.05.2020
BOKU partners
External partners
Universität Hamburg
Uwe Schneider
partner