Risk analysis for forest stands under climate change as basis for improved salvage logistics

The aim of the project is to determine the potential for and the risk of damage to forest stands, paying particular attention to the threat posed by the proliferation of harmful organisms and abiotic damage events, through the combined use of modern remote sensing methods and innovative modeling approaches. The current mass reproduction of the bark beetle (Ips typographus) made it clear that efficient bark beetle control is not least a question of logistics. The proposed project aims to create an innovative tool for risk analysis of forest stands by linking the analysis of the predisposition of the stands, the probability of occurrence of the damaging factor and the estimation of the threat, which can be an important basis for improved logistics of damaged wood. For this purpose we use methods of ecoclimatic modeling (development of the spruce bark beetle, defensive capacity of spruce), remote sensing (stand data, current occurrence of damage) and the assessment of the supply situation. The very detailed site data from the dynamic forest typing of Styria, which are available for the first time in Austria, give the possibility to develop the models for this province in great detail and to look into the future by means of climate scenarios - as a pilot project for other provinces which will follow with the forest typing. The risk analysis tool developed in the project can thus be continuously adapted and further developed and should thus serve the users in the longer term.