Supply risks of forest fuels for combined heating plants
Abstract
Climate change and foreseeable unsecure fossil fuel supply are the main drivers to force renewable energy that is both sustainable available and CO2 neutral. In Europe forest fuels are seen as one of the most important renewable energy sources for the future. In Austria about 23% of the total energy consumption is actually covered by renewable energy, with wood based energy sources being on the second place. Austria contracted to raise the share of renewable energy up to 34% until the year 2020. So in the future wood based energy production is assumed to increase further on leading to ongoing cumulation of wood fuel demand. Security of supply of wood firing heating plants and combined heating plants is additionally endangered by recent trends like new imposed export restrictions on roundwood in important export countries like Russia, rocketing wood demand in emerging markets as China or India, negative climate change effects on forest ecosystems or neighboring states forcing bioenergy production themselves. For Austria the most important forest fuel import sources are the neighboring states as Germany, Czech Republic and Slovakia, all having a high forest fuel potential. Especially Germany, which has several well-wooded border regions with Austria, could provide much more wood based fuel. But in these states bioenergy is also an issue of growing importance as well and energy production from forest fuels is increasing rapidly. In the future their import potentials could be considerably lower. The following issues can be seen as resulting hazards that have the potential to endanger the sustainable wood based fuel supply: • International competition on wood as energy source • Short- and medium term effects of forest calamities on inland energy wood potential • Rising prices for fossil fuel and increasing transport costs • Higher vulnerability of forest ecosystems • Actual energy wood exporting countries forcing their own bioenergy production • Competition with forest based industry plants being located near combined heating plants and expanding their capacities Presently there is a lack of studies examining the expected effects of these partly new risks on a sustainable wood procurement and on wood supply streams. High investments to build bioenergy plants and substantial governmental founding necessitate assessing these risks and their potential short-, medium and long term effects supply security of wood based fuels. Monte Carlo Simulation models as well as System Dynamics Models should be developed in order to be able to assess effects of hazards emerging from actual trends and future developments on the wood based fuel supply networks.
keywords Risk Analysis Wooden Biomass
Publikationen
Project staff
Manfred Gronalt
Univ.Prof. Mag.rer.soc.oec. Dr.rer.soc.oec. Manfred Gronalt
manfred.gronalt@boku.ac.at
Tel: +43 1 47654-73411
BOKU Project Leader
01.01.2009 - 31.07.2011
Peter Rauch
Priv.-Doz. Dipl.-Ing. Honorarprofessor Dr. Peter Rauch
peter.rauch@boku.ac.at
Tel: +43 1 47654-73414
Project Staff
01.01.2009 - 31.07.2011