Measures to adapt the energy system in Austria to climate change
Abstract
Immediate and effective measures for GHG mitigation in all parts around the globe are absolutely essential for sustaining a world worth living. Meanwhile, this fact is accepted widely, not only within the scientific community. However, climate change happens. Even in the most optimistic GHG reduction scenarios with immediate realisation of mitigation measures, the impact of climate change will hit our society substantially. The main target of this research project is to identify possible impacts of climate change on the energy system in a dynamic context up to 2050 and to derive high priority measures for adapting the energy system on climate change. For this purpose, the following three core questions will be investigated: 1) What are possible impacts of climate change on the Austrian energy system? Which areas of the energy system will be affected mostly (i.e. supply (e.g. biomass, hydro power), conversion (e.g. electricity production) and demand (heating, cooling)? 2) What are the high priority areas of measures that have to be realised in order to reduce the negative impacts of climate change and to achieve adaptation on climate change? 3) Which strategies could be selected in order to a achieve an implementation of these measure and technology portfolios? We consider three areas where the main impact of climate change on the energy system will take place. These areas are the main focus of this project: 1) Impact on energy demand (heating, cooling) 2) Impact on electricity supply (hydro power, cooling water, availability of biomass, wind, photovoltaic) 3) Impact on biomass potentials and supply (yields, land use, …) Our methodological approach consists of five steps: First, we will prepare the climatological data. For this purpose, the results of various climate change scenarios, which have been developed by the consortium in previous studies, will be refined and prepared. The approach of ranges of results as well as episodes will be applied in order to deal with uncertainties. Second, we will derive the impact on hydrology as well as on the agricultural and forestry biomass potentials. Third, we will investigate the impact on the Austrian energy system that will be modelled by a bottom-up-approach. This approach is based on a dynamic model of the stock, renewal and replacement of buildings, heating and cooling systems as well as power plants on an annual basis up to the year 2050. Fourth, we will identify adaptation measures for the investigated areas and we will discuss possible impact of these measures. Fifth, we will derive a priority list as well as an implementation strategy for those measure and technology portfolios. For this purpose, we will apply a participatory approach, whose core will be the discussion process within the advisory board of the project. The Institute of Silviculture is responsible for the biomass utilization potentials from forests.
keywords forest management climate change ecosystem simulation biomass for bioenergy
Publikationen
Project staff
Manfred Josef Lexer
Univ.Prof. Dipl.-Ing. Dr.nat.techn. Manfred Josef Lexer
mj.lexer@boku.ac.at
Tel: +43 1 47654-91316
Project Leader
01.10.2008 - 30.06.2011
Rupert Seidl
Dipl.-Ing. Dr. Rupert Seidl
rupert.seidl@boku.ac.at
Project Staff
01.10.2008 - 30.06.2011