Simulating adaptation of forest managment to changing climate and disturbance regimes
Abstract
Forest disturbance regimes have intensified distinctly in recent decades, and climate change is expected to further increase the frequency and severity of disturbance events. Adaptation is thus necessary to mitigate detrimental effects of this intensification on the sustainable provisioning of ecosystem services. However, while we’re beginning to understand the responses of individual disturbance agents to a changing climate, our knowledge on disturbance regimes (i.e. multiple agents interacting in space and time) is still limited. The development of adaptation strategies is further complicated by remaining deficiencies in our conception of forests as coupled human and natural systems. While forest models are increasingly able to simulate climate change impacts dynamically, human responses to these ecosystem changes are still widely represented as static prescriptions in such models, neglecting the adaptive capacity in silviculture. The here presented research agenda addresses these issues, with the overall aim to foster adaptation to changing climate and disturbance regimes in forest management. We will study wind – bark beetle interactions based on empirical data from long-term ecosystem research, and implement such interactions into a novel forest landscape simulator. We will furthermore develop an agent-based model of forest management within this simulation framework, with the ability to adapt management dynamically to the conditions emerging from the simulation. Harnessing these methodological advances in a number of case studies we will address questions such as whether interactions will amplify the climate sensitivity of disturbance regimes further, and how response diversity in multi-owner landscapes affects adaptive capacity. The project aims at improving the robustness of disturbance management and thus makes an important contribution to adapting sustainable forest management to changing climate and disturbance regimes.
keywords forest ecosystem management climate change adaptation forest disturbance regimes risk and resilience simulation modeling
Publikationen
Intensifying natural disturbance regimesand implications for forest management
Autoren: Seidl, R Jahr: 2013
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Increasing forest disturbances in Europe and their impact on carbon storage
Autoren: Seidl, R; Schelhaas, MJ; Rammer, W; Verkerk, PJ Jahr: 2014
Journal articles
Disturbance Regimes And Ecosystem Services In A Changing World
Autoren: Seidl, R. Jahr: 2014
Journal articles
The Shape of Ecosystem Management to Come: Anticipating Risks and Fostering Resilience
Autoren: Seidl, R Jahr: 2014
Journal articles
Disturbance legacies increase the resilience of forest ecosystem structure, composition, and functioning
Autoren: Seidl, R; Rammer, W; Spies, TA Jahr: 2014
Journal articles
Tree species diversity mitigates disturbance impacts on the forest carbon cycle.
Autoren: Silva Pedro, M; Rammer, W; Seidl, R; Jahr: 2015
Journal articles
Seeing the forest for the trees: Is there a place for individual trees in forest landscape modeling?
Autoren: Seidl, R Jahr: 2015
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Small beetles, large-scale drivers: How regional and landscape factors affect local bark beetle outbreaks
Autoren: Seidl, R., Müller, J., Hothorn, T., Bässler, C., Heurich, M., Kautz, M. Jahr: 2015
Conference & Workshop proceedings, paper, abstract
Coupling human and natural systems: Simulating adaptive management agents in dynamically changing forest landscapes
Autoren: Rammer, W; Seidl, R Jahr: 2015
Journal articles
Searching for resilience: addressing the impacts of changing disturbance regimes on forest ecosystem services
Autoren: Seidl, R; Spies, TA; Peterson, DL; Stephens, SL; Hicke, JA Jahr: 2016
Journal articles
Small beetle, large-scale drivers: how regional and landscape factors affect outbreaks of the European spruce bark beetle
Autoren: Seidl, R; Muller, J; Hothorn, T; Bassler, C; Heurich, M; Kautz, M Jahr: 2016
Journal articles
A disturbance-induced increase in tree species diversity facilitates forest productivity
Autoren: Pedro, MS; Rammer, W; Seidl, R Jahr: 2016
Journal articles
Complex mountain terrain and disturbance history drive variation in forest aboveground live carbon density in the western Oregon Cascades, USA
Autoren: Zald, HSJ; Spies, TA; Seidl, R; Pabst, RJ; Olsen, KA; Steel, EA Jahr: 2016
Journal articles
Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions.
Autoren: Thom, D; Rammer, W; Seidl, R; Jahr: 2017
Journal articles
Simulating adaptation of forest management to changing climate and disturbance regimes
Autoren: Seidl, R. Jahr: 2016
Forschungsbericht (extern. Auftraggeber)
The impacts of climate change and disturbance on spatio-temporal trajectories of biodiversity in a temperate forest landscape
Autoren: Thom, D; Rammer, W; Dirnbock, T; Muller, J; Kobler, J; Katzensteiner, K; Helm, N; Seidl, R Jahr: 2017
Journal articles
Assessing the resilience of Norway spruce forests through a model-based reanalysis of thinning trials
Autoren: Seidl, R; Vigl, F; Rossler, G; Neumann, M; Rammer, W Jahr: 2017
Journal articles
Disentangling the effects of compositional and structural diversity on forest productivity
Autoren: Pedro, MS; Rammer, W; Seidl, R Jahr: 2017
Journal articles
Project staff
Rupert Seidl
Dipl.-Ing. Dr. Rupert Seidl
rupert.seidl@boku.ac.at
Project Leader
01.03.2013 - 30.09.2016