Multisectoral Analysis of climate and landuse change impacts on Pollinators, Plant diversity and crop Yields

The response of agricultural yields to climate change has been repeatedly studied, but many important processes and interactions remain largely unexplored. One of these unexplored key processes is the linking of pollinators with climate and land use changes by controlling plant diversity and crop yields. Mappy aims to understand and explore potentially large societal benefits from a quantitative understanding of the complex interactions between climate change, land use change, ecosystem management practices, plant diversity and pollinators. The objective of this project is to study quantitatively the feedback processes linking pollinators, plant diversity and crop yields in the framework of climate and land use changes. The response of agricultural yields to climate change is critically dependent on these feedbacks that until now remain largely unexplored. In order to fill this gap, we will focus on studying interactions between three main sectors: biodiversity/nature conservation, forestry and agriculture. Within agriculture, the emphasis will be put on three sub-sectors: fruit crops, food/fodder crops and energy crops. We will use diverse types of crop and vegetation models to estimate the impacts of climate change on each studied sector in several case study regions in Europe. The study will be undertaken with local stakeholders, who will identify most relevant topics to be addressed by the consortium. The interdependencies between the sectors will be analyzed through the dynamics of land use and land cover on the one hand and dynamics of pollinator communities on the other hand. We will assemble a small set of complementary models to capture the dynamics of this complex system at regional level. First, we will produce spatio-temporal high-resolution climatic scenarios over the studied regions, by using a regional climate model. Then, we will use various (agricultural/fruit) crop models, dynamic vegetation models and species distribution models to assess the impacts of future climate change on agricultural yields and biodiversity, using ensemble means whenever relevant. An agent-based model will then be used to derive detailed land use and land cover change scenarios for the future at the scale of the studied regions. This suite of models will allow to assess potential impacts on pollinator communities. This improved knowledge of pollinator dynamics will then be used to refine the calculation of some agricultural yields, especially those of some selected fruit crops. Finally, the social and economic impacts of the projected changes in the studied regions will be evaluated, by assessing quantitative indicators developed from the model results in concertation with project stakeholders.