Analysis of Water Level Fluctuations and Implications on Local Livelihoods in the Great Rift Valley Lakes of Kenya | GreatLakes

The Great Rift Valley Lakes of East Africa have recently experienced significant fluctuations in their water levels, affecting livelihoods of the local communities living within the riparian areas. Between the period of 2010 and 2013, increasing water levels in the Rift Valley Lakes of Kenya led to the expansion of Lake Bogoria, Lake Naivasha, Lake Baringo and Lake Nakuru by about 26%, 58%, 61%, 72% respectively. The consequent inundations from the expansions resulted into loss of productive agricultural lands often used for pasture and subsistent farming by the local rural communities. In some cases, the surrounding social infrastructure such as schools, dispensaries and hotels have been submerged and rendered inaccessible. In view of the existing challenges within the affected areas, coupled with the need for integrated environmental risk management, this study purposes to assess fluctuations in the water levels and their implication on livelihoods of the rural communities living around Lake Nakuru and Lake Baringo, which have been the most affected recently. A detailed hydrological analysis of the water balance components will be undertaken to provide an understanding of the potential causes. Analysis will be achieved with the support of satellite-based data sources, considering the eminent data scarcity of the region in overall. We envision a co-design, co-development approach beginning with a comprehensive need assessment involving targeted local stakeholders important to explore and contextualise the study objectives. The implications of the inundations on local livelihoods will be assessed through an assessment of the affected social infrastructures, farmlands, and the potential impacts on such activities based on future scenarios. Representative flood risk maps for localised applications will be developed and provided to the relevant water managers in the study regions. The study will provide a consistent database and new insights of the space-time Lake water level fluctuations important for supporting better regulation, development and management of the concerned land and water resources.