Analysis of forest management strategies under conditions of climatic change.

In this project we study the potential effects of conversion of conifer forests to mixed broadleave(-conifer) forests under consideration of disturbances and climate change on forest services and functions, including economic parameters at FMU level by means of a computer simulation study. The test case is a secondary Norway spruce forest of appr. 250 ha forest area. In cooperation with the Institute of Forest protection, BOKU an existing ecosystem simulation model (PICUS v1.41) will be improved by a module to simulate biotic disturbances in managed forests. Scenario analysis will build on a design matrix of different transient climate change scenarios and alternative management strategies. Planning horizont will be maximal 100 years. Issues to be adressed are: (1) What are the simulated effects of climate and management on forest services and functions (a) with exlicitly considered disturbances, (b) without distrubances? (2) What are the economic effects of the scenarios at FMU level? (3) What are the differences among the management alternatives regarding SFM according to criteria and indicators (C&I) of the MCPFE?