The substitution of meat protein: A consolidation of perspectives of consumers, technology, food industry, agricultural and food policy

The food value chain is the backbone of society but far from aligned with the Paris climate target or the European Green Deal as about one third of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are emanating from this area. About half of these emissions are due to meat production which appropriates about 80% of agricultural land for feed production, contributing to biodiversity loss and natural habitat destruction. The level of meat intake in Western societies decreases life expectancy and puts a heavy burden on health systems. Based on this assessment, the unsustainable footprint of meat production may be disrupted by policy makers that adapt agricultural and/or climate policies, consumers that shy away from meat products for climate, health or animal wellbeing reasons, new technologies that substitute meat products by offering the same sensual experience at lower cost and superior quality. This project explores the likely disruptive impact of regulators, incumbents, consumers, or startups (RISC) and elaborates diffusion curves for meat alternatives based on in depth analysis of these potential disruptors. The diffusion scenarios are then used to assess the impact of the most likely scenarios of the food value chain in terms of production, value added, employment and GHG emissions.